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Does intermittent fastingwork?间歇性禁食有效吗?Itdoesforweightloss.Itsothersupposedbenefitsaredebatable对于减肥确实有效。但其宣称的其他健康效益仍有争议Dietscomeanddietsgo.Oneofthemostpopulartodayis “intermittentfasting” inwhich,asthenamesuggests,theideaistolimitone’sfoodintaketocertaintimewindows.Onepopular variant,the “5-2diet”,requirespeopletoeateitherverysmallamounts,ornothingatall,ontwodaysaweek,butimposesnorestrictionsontheotherfive.减肥方法层出不穷。时下最流行的当属"间歇性禁食"——顾名思义,就是将进食时间限定在特定时段。其中"5-2轻断食法"颇受欢迎,要求每周两天仅少量进食或完全禁食,其余五天则无需限制。Intermittentfastingispopular.Andasaweight-lossstrategy,ithasseveralthingsgoingforit.Oneisthatitisuncomplicated.Thereisnoneedtoweightheingredientsofeverymeal,assomedietsdemand,nortochangewhatyoueat drastically.Limitingtherestrictionstoacoupleofdaysaweek,orseveralhoursaday(mostofwhicharespentasleep)alsorequiresless willpower,whichmightmakeiteasiertostickwith.这种饮食方式大行其道。作为减重策略,它具备多项优势。其一,操作简单。无需像某些饮食法那样精确称量每餐食材,也无需彻底改变饮食结构。每周仅需坚持数天,或每天限制数小时(大部分时间在睡眠中度过),意志力的消耗相对较少,因此更易长期坚持。Workingoutwhetherthatactuallytranslatesintogreaterweightlossthanotherdietsisdifficult.Moststudiesfindlimiteddataandmixedresults.Thegeneralconsensus,saysNicholaLudlam-Raine,adietitianandspokeswomanfortheBritishDieteticAssociation,isthatintermittentfastingseemstoworkroughlyaswellforweightlossastraditionalcalorie-countingdoes.但要验证其减重效果是否优于其他饮食法却非易事。多数研究数据有限且结果不一。英国饮食协会发言人、营养学家尼古拉·拉德拉姆-雷恩指出,学界普遍认为间歇性禁食与传统热量控制法在减重效果上大致相当。Otherhealthbenefitsmightalsobeckon.Forcinglabanimalstofast(albeitnotintermittently)canincreasetheirlifespansbyupto40%.Italsoappearsto mitigate thephysicaldeclinethatcomeswitholdage,boostvariousmarkersofmetabolichealthandevenreducesusceptibilitytocancer.该饮食法可能还具备其他健康裨益。实验室动物强制禁食(尽管不是间歇性禁食)可延长寿命达40%,同时能延缓机体衰老、改善代谢指标,甚至降低患癌风险。Exactlyhowitdoesallthatisnotentirelyclear.Oneimportantfactorseemstobeautophagy,theprocessbywhichcellsbreakdownandrecyclepartsofthemselves.Cellsbecomemuchkeeneronautophagywhennutrientsarescarce. 具体作用机制尚未完全阐明。一个重要因素可能是细胞自噬机制——即细胞分解并回收自身部分结构的过程。当营养匮乏时,细胞自噬活动显著增强。Atthesametime,autophagyseemstohaveapreferenceforattackingdamagedanddegradedpartsofcells—andtheaccumulationofsuchcellulardetritusisoneofseveralmechanismsthoughttounderliethe decrepitude thatcomeswithageing.同时,这种机制优先清除细胞内的受损老化部分,而此类细胞碎片的堆积正是导致衰老的重要因素。Thehopeisthatintermittentfastingmightprovokeasimilarresponseinhumans.Therearetheoreticalreasonstothinkitmight:thecellularmechanismstriggeredbyfoodshortagesseemtohavebeenconservedbyevolutioninallsortsofdifferentanimals. 人们期待间歇性禁食能在人体引发类似反应。从理论上讲确有可能:食物短缺引发的细胞机制似乎已在各类动物中进化保留。Butrunningdefinitivehumantrialsofthesortdoneonlabanimalsisimpossible.“Whenwesay ‘calorierestriction’ wemeannearlystarving[theanimals],”saysAdamCollins,anutritionresearcherattheUniversityofSurrey.但要在人体开展实验室动物那种严格试验并不可行。萨里大学营养学家亚当·柯林斯指出:"我们所说的'热量限制'对实验动物而言近乎饥饿疗法。"Thatleavesscientistsreliant,fornow,onsmallish,short-livedstudiesthatuselessdrasticdietsandwhichrelyon proxy measuresofhealthsuchasinsulinresponseorcholesterollevels.Theirresultsaremixed. 目前科学家只能依赖规模较小、周期较短的替代性研究,这些研究采用较温和的饮食方案,并以胰岛素反应或胆固醇水平等替代指标评估健康效益。研究结果同样存在分歧。DrCollins’steam,forinstance,haspublishedarandomised-controltrial(themostrigoroussort)suggestingthatintermittentfastingimprovesthemetabolismoffatsmorethanordinarydietingdoes. 柯林斯博士团队发表的随机对照试验(最严谨的研究类型)显示,间歇性禁食比普通节食更能改善脂肪代谢。AreviewpaperpublishedinApril2024lookedat23otherstudiesandconcludedthatintermittentfastingwasslightlybetterthanordinarydietingforoverweightpeoplewhenitcametoimprovinglevelsofcholesterolandinsulin.Asimilararticle,publishedinJanuary,foundnomeaningfuldifferenceforeitherweightlossorcardiovascularhealth.2024年4月发表的一篇综述对23项研究进行分析后认为,在改善超重人群胆固醇和胰岛素水平方面,间歇性禁食略胜一筹;但同年1月的另一篇类似论文发现,在减重效果和心血管健康方面两者并无显著差异。Therearealsorisks.AstudyinmicepublishedinNatureinOctober2024foundthatseverefasting(wherecalorieswerecutby40%)haddownsides,includingmusclemasslossand,possibly,weakenedimmunesystems.Moderation,too,shouldbetakeninmoderation.潜在风险亦不容忽视。2024年10月《自然》杂志刊登的一项小鼠实验表明,严格禁食(热量摄入减少40%)会导致肌肉流失,并可能削弱免疫系统。适度原则本身也需把握分寸。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:intermittent [ˌɪntərˈmɪtənt]adj. 间歇的;断断续续的variant [ˈveəriənt]n. 变体;变种 adj.不同的;变化的drastically [ˈdræstɪkəli]adv. 彻底地;激烈地;极大地willpower [ˈwɪlpaʊər]n. 意志力;毅力mitigate [ˈmɪtɪɡeɪt]v. 减轻;缓和;缓解decrepitude [dɪˈkrepɪtjuːd]n. 衰老;虚弱;老朽proxy [ˈprɒksi]n. 代理;代表;代理人 v. 代理;代表
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HavedoctorsbeenwrongabouthowtotreatAlzheimer’sdisease?医生们治疗阿尔兹海默症的方法是否一直存在谬误?AnewbookarguesthatdogmaandbadscienceledAlzheimer’sresearchastray一本新书揭露:教条主义与伪科学如何将阿尔兹海默研究引入歧途Alzheimer’sdiseaseaffectsmorethan30mpeopleworldwide,mostlytheelderly.Aftertheageof65,thechanceofdevelopingitdoubleseveryfiveyears.By85,theoddsareoneinthree. 阿尔兹海默症影响着全球超3000万人,患者多为老年人。65岁后罹患此病的风险每五年翻一番,85岁人群患病率高达三分之一。Itssymptoms,whichincludememoryloss,difficultywithbasictasksanddepression,progressivelyworsen.Asgloballifeexpectancyrises,sowillcasesofAlzheimer’s,makingitoneofthebigpublic-healthchallengesofanageingworld.其症状包括记忆衰退、基础行动困难与抑郁情绪,且会持续恶化。随着全球预期寿命延长,阿尔兹海默症病例将持续攀升,成为老龄化社会面临的重大公共卫生挑战。Thereisnocure.Between1995and2021,around$42bnwaspouredintomorethan1,000clinicaltrials.Yetonlyahandfulofdrugshasmadeittomarket.Eventhosemostlytreatthesymptomsofthedisease,ratherthanstopit.目前该病尚无根治之法。1995至2021年间,超420亿美元资金投入到1000多项临床试验,但仅有寥寥数款药物成功上市。即便获批药物也仅能缓解症状,无法阻止病程发展。TheleadingexplanationofAlzheimer’sisthe“amyloidhypothesis”,whichsuggeststhatdepositsofbeta-amyloid,atypeofprotein,accumulatebetweenneuronsanddisrupttheirfunction. 主流理论"淀粉样蛋白假说"认为,β-淀粉样蛋白在神经元间沉积导致功能紊乱。Butthetheoryremainscontroversial:allbrainswithAlzheimer’sshowbeta-amyloidplaques,yetnoteveryonewiththeseplaquesexperiencescognitivedecline.Whetheramyloidbuild-upcausesAlzheimer’s,orismerelyasymptom,remainsunresolved.但该理论始终存在争议:所有阿尔兹海默患者脑部均存在淀粉样斑块,但具有此类斑块者未必都会出现认知衰退。淀粉样蛋白堆积究竟致病还是仅为病症表现,至今未有定论。In“Doctored”CharlesPiller,asciencejournalist,detailshowgroupthinkanddishonestysteeredAlzheimer’sresearchoffcourse.In2006 aNaturepaper byresearchersattheUniversityofMinnesotaappearedtoprovideamajorbreakthrough.Thestudyclaimedthatasubtypeofbeta-amyloidcausedmemoryimpairment.Itquicklybecameoneofthemostcitedpapersandinspiredhundredsofmillionsofdollarsinpublic-researchgrants. 科学记者查尔斯·皮勒在《篡改的科学》一书中详述了群体思维与学术不端如何扭曲阿尔兹海默研究。2006年明尼苏达大学研究团队在《自然》发表的论文看似取得重大突破,声称某种β-淀粉样亚型会导致记忆损伤。这篇高被引论文催生了数亿美元公共研究经费。Anotherinfluentialpaperpublishedin2012byscientistsassociatedwithCassavaSciences,abiotechfirm, bolstered theamyloidtheorybylinkinginsulinresistancetoamyloidplaqueformation.ThefindingfuelledawaveofresearchintotheideaofAlzheimer’sbeinga“diabetesofthebrain”thatcouldbemanagedwithdrugs.Therewasjustoneproblem—bothstudieswerebasedon falsifieddata.2012年生物科技公司木薯科学关联科学家发表的另一重磅论文,通过论证胰岛素抵抗与淀粉样斑块形成的关联进一步巩固该假说,引发"脑部糖尿病"治疗理念的研究热潮。但问题在于——两项研究均基于伪造数据。“Doctored”followsMrPiller’sinvestigationintothedeception.Centraltothestoryisagroupofimage sleuths,withasharpeyeformanipulatedpixelsofWesternblots(alabtechniqueusedtostudyproteins,whichwere doctoredinthestudies). 《篡改的科学》记录了皮勒对学术造假的调查历程。故事核心是一群图像侦探,他们以专业眼光识别蛋白质印迹实验(研究中遭篡改的蛋白质检测技术)的像素篡改痕迹。Somechaptersreadlikeascientific whodunnit.Inone,MrPillerhastoworkhardtoearnthetrustofa reluctantwhistleblower.Inanother,hetravelstoPragueforaprivatemeetingwithagroupofimagedetectiveswithcrypticpseudonyms.部分章节犹如科学探案:皮勒需费尽周折赢得泄密者信任;又专程赴布拉格与化名神秘的图像分析专家秘密会面。Despiteclearevidenceofmanipulatedresearchresults,journalsandregulatorswereslowtoact.MrPillerblamespowerfulbackersoftheamyloidhypothesiswhoignoredredflags. 尽管篡改证据确凿,期刊与监管机构却反应迟缓。皮勒指责淀粉样假说的权势支持者刻意忽视危险信号。ItwasonlyinJune2024—twoyearsafterallegationsfirstsurfaced—thattheNaturepaperwasretractedbyitsauthors.CassavaSciences,whiledenyingwrongdoing,stoppedtrialsofitsAlzheimer’sdrug,Simufilam,inNovemberafteritfailedtoshowclinicalbenefits.首起学术不端指控浮现两年后,《自然》论文才于2024年6月被作者撤回。木薯科学虽否认过失,其药物Simufilam因缺乏临床疗效已于去年11月终止试验。Thesepapers’consequencesgobeyondthelab.Forpatientsandtheirfamilies,experimentaltreatmentsoftenrepresentafinallifeline.Encouragingpeopletopintheirhopesonmedicinesthatareineffective,orevenunsafe,isa betrayal.Fixationonatheoryofferinglimitedsuccessinhumantrialsmayalsohavedivertedresourcesfromothermorepromisingtherapies.这些论文的影响远超实验室范畴。对患者家庭而言,实验性疗法常是最后希望。诱导人们寄望于无效甚至危险的药物实属背叛。执着于临床试验屡屡受挫的理论,可能已挤占其他更具前景疗法的研发资源。Since2023theFoodandDrugAdministration,America’sdrugregulator,hasapprovedtwonewmedicinesthatmodestlyslowedcognitivedeclinebyattackingtheamyloidplaques. 2023年以来,美国食药监局批准了两款通过清除淀粉样斑块延缓认知衰退的新药。但部分患者出现脑肿胀、脑出血等严重副作用。Theyalsocomewithdangerousside-effectsforsome,whichincludebrainswellingandbleeding.MrPillerremainsscepticalofthesetreatments.Sowillmanyofhisreaders,afterhisgrippingstoryofmedicalgroupthinkand warped incentives.皮勒对这些疗法持怀疑态度。随着这部揭露医学界群体思维与扭曲激励机制的作品问世,相信众多读者也将产生同样疑虑。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:bolster [ˈboʊlstər]n. 长枕;支持物 v. 支持;增强;巩固sleuth [sluːθ]n. 侦探;私家侦探 v. 像侦探般调查;搜寻whodunnit [ˈhuːdʌnɪt]n. 侦探小说;推理小说reluctant [rɪˈlʌktənt]adj. 不情愿的;勉强的whistleblower [ˈwɪslbloʊər]n. 告密者;检举者;揭发者betrayal [bɪˈtreɪəl]n. 背叛;出卖;辜负warp [wɔːrp]n. 弯曲;变形 v. 弯曲;变形;歪曲(事实等)
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LondonisageingtwiceasquicklyastherestofEngland伦敦老龄化速度是全英格兰的两倍Partlybecauseit’saniceplacetobeold部分原因在于这里适合养老Somelondonersdreamofretiringtocottagesbythesea.ButNickSanderson,thechiefexecutiveofAudleyGroup,believesthatdesiresareshifting.HiscompanyhasbuiltflatsforretireesinClapham,insouthLondon,andwillsoonstartbuilding150moreinBrentCross,inthenorth-westofthecity.IthopestocreatearetirementvillageinCanadaWater,intheeastLondondocklands.“Whywouldyouchoosetogoandliveoutinthemiddleofnowhere?”heasks.一些伦敦人梦想退休后搬到海边小屋居住。但奥德利集团首席执行官尼克·桑德森认为人们的意愿正在改变。他的公司在伦敦南部的克拉彭区为退休人士建造了公寓,很快还将在西北部的布伦特十字区新建150套此类住房,并希望在东部码头区的加拿大水区打造一个退休社区。他反问道:"为什么要选择去偏僻之地生活呢?"London’spopulationiscertainlyaltering.Between2011and2023themedianageofitsinhabitantsrosebytwoyears,fromjustunder34tojustunder36.AlthoughthecityisyoungerthanEnglandandWalesasawhole,itisageingmorethantwiceasquickly.ComparedwithcitieslikeExeter,ManchesterandNottingham,whichhaveuniversitiesandrelativelycheaphomes,itseemsdecidedlycreaky.伦敦的人口结构确实在发生变化。2011年至2023年间,居民年龄中位数从略低于34岁上升至略低于36岁。虽然整体而言伦敦仍比英格兰和威尔士其他地区年轻,但其老龄化速度却是这些地区的两倍多。与埃克塞特、曼彻斯特和诺丁汉等拥有大学和相对廉价住房的城市相比,伦敦的老龄化趋势显得尤为明显。AreportpublishedlastmonthbytheResolutionFoundation,athink-tank,suggeststhatthreechangesareresponsibleforthistrend.Londonhasfewerbabiesthanitusedto.Youngadultsmakeupasmallershareofitspopulationthaninthepast.Andtheranksofthemiddle-agedandoldareswelling.智库决议基金会上月发布的报告指出,三个因素共同导致了这一趋势:伦敦新生儿数量减少、年轻人口占比下降,以及中老年人口规模扩大。Londonexperiencedaremarkablebabyboominthefirstdecadeofthiscentury.Sincethenithassufferedacrash.Between2010and2023thecapital’sfertilityrate,whichisexpressedasthenumberofbirthsperwoman,fellfrom2.0to1.4—aslightlyfasterdeclinethaninEnglandandWalesasawhole.ThefertilityrateininnerLondonis1.2,closetothenationallevelsinItalyandJapan,tworichcountriesthatarewellknownfortheirrapidlyageingpopulations.Aroundthecapital,primaryschoolsareclosing.本世纪头十年伦敦曾经历显著婴儿潮,此后却遭遇断崖式下跌。2010至2023年间,首都生育率(每位女性生育数)从2.0降至1.4,下降速度略快于英格兰和威尔士整体水平。内伦敦地区生育率仅为1.2,接近以快速老龄化著称的意大利和日本等富裕国家的全国水平。首都周边地区的小学正在陆续关闭。Theshortageofyoungadultsmightnotbequiteasacuteasofficialstatisticssuggest.Recentpopulationestimatesareinfluencedbythelastcensus,whichwasconductedinthecovid-ravagedmonthofMarch2021.Aroundthattime,someyoungpeopleabandonedtheircrampedcity-centreflatsforsuburbia.Nowthatcovidisamere nuisance,andmoreemployersareinsistingthatpeopleworkintheoffice,aportionmayhavecreptbackintothecity,unnoticedbystatisticians.年轻人口短缺的严重程度或许不及官方数据显示的那么严峻。最新人口估算受到2021年3月疫情肆虐期间开展的最近一次人口普查影响。当时部分年轻人逃离拥挤的市中心迁居郊区。随着疫情威胁消退,更多雇主要求员工返岗办公,可能有部分人悄然回归城市,但未被统计部门察觉。Butperhapsnotalargeportion.Thepandemic,andtheriseinhome-workingthatittriggered,wipedoutsomeoftheretailandhospitalityjobsthatusedtodrawyoungpeopletoLondon.AnindexoftransactionsatPret,asandwichchain,showsthatsalesinshopsservingLondon’scityworkerswerejust63%ofpre-pandemiclevelslastOctober.不过回流规模可能有限。疫情引发的远程办公浪潮,消除了零售和餐饮业等曾吸引年轻人来伦敦的传统就业机会。连锁三明治品牌Pret的交易指数显示,去年10月服务于伦敦金融城上班族的门店销售额仅为疫情前水平的63%。Immigrants,whoareoftenyoung,seemtobeshunningthecapitalforcheaperplacesoutsidethecitylimits,suchasThurrocktotheeastandWatfordtothenorth.Between2011and2021theproportionofforeign-bornpeopleinNewham,anethnicallydiverseboroughofinnerLondon,wasflat.InLambeth,anotherinnerLondonborough,thesharefell.WhenBritainlefttheEUin2020itcreatedanimmigrationsystemthatfavourshealthandcareworkers.Healthandcarejobscanbefoundalloverthecountry,notjustinLondon.年轻移民群体似乎更青睐瑟罗克(东部)和沃特福德(北部)等城郊廉价区域。2011至2021年间,内伦敦多元文化社区纽汉姆区的外国出生人口比例保持稳定,而在兰贝斯等另一个内伦敦行政区,该比例甚至出现下降。英国2020年脱欧后建立的移民体系优先医护工作者,而这类岗位在全国各地而非仅限伦敦存在。Thebabybustmightend;youngadultscouldreturntothecity.Bycontrast,theriseofmiddle-agedandoldpeopleappearstobe inexorable.TheGreaterLondonAuthority(GLA),whichoverseesthecapital,estimatesthatthenumberofpeopleaged50oroverrosebymorethan400,000between2014and2024,accountingformorethanfour-fifthsofoverallpopulationgrowthinthecity.TheGLAexpectssimilargrowthoverthenextdecade.PartsofsuburbanLondon,suchasRichmonduponThames,inthewest,aregreyingathighspeed.婴儿荒或许会终止,年轻人可能重返都市。相比之下,中老年人口增长似乎势不可挡。大伦敦政府估算,2014至2024年间50岁以上人口增加超40万,占全市人口增长总量的五分之四以上。该机构预计未来十年将保持相似增速。里士满等伦敦郊区正在加速老龄化。“Theculturehaschanged,”arguesPatrickDevlin,anarchitectwhodesignsretirementhomes,amongotherbuildings.Thedesiretomovetoaseasidebungalowisgivingwaytothedesiretolivenearfriendsandcultural amenities. 设计退休社区的建筑师帕特里克·德夫林指出:"文化观念已经改变。"人们不再执着于海滨平房,转而追求便利的社交圈和文化设施。Londonisexceptionallywellsuppliedwiththelatter,andwithsuperbpublictransport,whichcanberiddengratisbyLondonersfromtheageof60(elsewherepeoplemustwaituntil66).Despitethe paranoid rantsofsomeAmericanpopulists,thecityhasgrownsafe.CumbriaandHampshirehavehigherratesofviolentcrime.伦敦不仅拥有首屈一指的文化资源,公共交通系统对60岁以上居民免费开放(其他地区需年满66岁)。尽管某些美国民粹主义者危言耸听,但伦敦治安持续改善——坎布里亚郡和汉普郡的暴力犯罪率更高。“It’samorepleasantcitytolivein—ifyouhavethemoney,”saysRichardBrown,aLondon-watcher.Middle-agedandoldLondonersoftendohavethemoney,oratleastthewealth,becausetheyboughttheirhomeswhenpricesweremorereasonablethantheyaretoday.Otherssettleasclosetothecityastheycan,andcommutewhentheymust.伦敦观察家理查德·布朗说:"只要经济宽裕,这是座宜居之城。"多数中老年市民确实具备这样的经济实力,至少拥有房产财富(购入时价格远低于现价)。其他人则尽可能定居近郊,必要时通勤入城。Inthelongrun,thefactthatLondonissuchahardplaceforchildrenandyoungadultsshouldbeconcerning,becauseitsuggeststhatthecitycouldgraduallybecomelessexcitinganddynamic.Fornow,however,thereisaconcertattheRoyalFestivalHall,andabusispullingup.Where’sthatfreepass?长远来看,伦敦对青少年群体的不友好令人担忧,这可能导致城市活力逐渐衰退。但此刻,皇家节日音乐厅的演出即将开场,公交车正缓缓进站。那张免费乘车卡放哪儿了?(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:nuisance [ˈnjuːsns]n. 麻烦事;讨厌的人(或东西)inexorable [ɪnˈeksərəbl]adj. 不可阻挡的;不可改变的amenity [əˈmiːnəti]n. 便利设施;生活福利设施paranoid [ˈpærənɔɪd]adj. 偏执的;多疑的
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Howtogetpeopletoresign如何让员工主动辞职Withouttorchingtheorganisationorlosingyourbestemployees而不破坏组织或流失优秀人才Thegutreactionthatamanagerhaswhenanemployeeannouncestheirresignationistelling.Sometimesitisgenuinedismay:thepersonleavingisastar.Sometimesdisappointmentismixedwith irritation athavingtorecruitandtrainareplacement.Andsometimesitisrelief:theHRequivalentofapebblebeingremovedfromyourshoe.当员工提出辞职时,管理者的本能反应往往耐人寻味。有时是真情流露的沮丧:离开者是明星员工。有时在失望中夹杂着恼怒:又要重新招聘和培训替代者。有时则是如释重负:仿佛人力资源部门终于从鞋里取出了一粒石子。ForElonMuskandhis acolytes attheDepartmentofGovernmentEfficiency(DOGE),employeesofthefederalgovernmentinAmericaarepebblesallthewaydown.OnJanuary28ththeOfficeofPersonnelManagement(OPM)sentanemailtoroughly2mworkersofferingthem“deferredresignation”,thechancetoresignandgetpaiduntiltheendofSeptember. 对于埃隆·马斯克及其"政府效率部"(DOGE)的信徒而言,美国联邦政府的雇员就像层层堆积的鞋中砾石。1月28日,美国人事管理局(OPM)向约200万名公务员发送邮件,提供"延迟辞职"机会——即刻辞职仍可领薪至9月底。Thelegalityofthisofferisuncertain(onFebruary12thajudgeallowedittoproceed).Soistheend-goal:bossesoftenusevoluntaryredundancyasaconsensualwaytocutheadcountbuttheassumptionisusuallythattheywanttheorganisationitselftosurvive.Still,theepisoderaisesaninterestingquestion:isthereagoodwaytogetworkerstoresign?该提议的合法性尚存疑(2月12日,法官允许其推进),最终目标也令人困惑:企业通常用自愿离职补偿作为削减编制的共识方案,但前提是组织本身需要存续。不过此事引出一个有趣问题:是否存在让员工主动辞职的理想方式?TheopennessoftheOPM’sdeferred-resignationofferisinitsfavour.Bosseshavelongadoptedunderhandtacticstoencourageindividualstoquitratherthanhavetosackthem.Sometypesof“quietfiring”reducestimulationandstatus:managersgivetheirtargets menial worktodoorsticktheminsmallerandsmallerofficesuntiltheyendupfeelinglikeacorporateversionofAlice. 人事管理局方案的开放性值得肯定。管理者长期使用暗箱手段迫使员工主动离职以避免解雇纠纷。某些"隐性裁员"通过剥夺激励与地位实现:给目标员工安排打杂工作,或将他们塞进越来越小的办公室,使其产生爱丽丝梦游公司版的压抑感。Otherapproachessetpeopleupforfailure:deadlinesthatcannotbemet,weeklymeetingsat3amtosuitonecolleagueinAustralia. Nudging peopletoresignbymakinglifeintolerablewillnotwinyouamanager-of-the-yearaward.Norisitanefficientwaytothintheranks.还有些手段则预设失败:设置无法完成的截止期限,为配合澳洲同事召开凌晨三点的周会。通过制造痛苦逼人辞职绝非"年度最佳管理者"的明智之选,也非精简团队的有效途径。Givingemployeesanexplicitincentivetoleavetheirjobscanbeaneffectivewaytoseparatethecommittedfromthetime-servers.ZapposandAmazon,twoonlineretailers,haveexperimentedwithpay-to-quitprogrammesdesignedto winkleout newhireswhoarenotmotivatedtostay. 明确的经济激励能有效筛选出混日子的员工。线上零售商Zappos和亚马逊曾试验"付费离职"计划,剔除缺乏动力的新员工。WhenMrMusktookoverTwitterin2022,hesentanemailwiththesamesubject-lineastheOPM’smissive,askingpeopletoclickonalinkiftheywerereadytoembracehis“hardcore”culture.Thosethatdidnotclickwereofferedseverancepay,thoughlawsuitscontinuefromthosewhosaytheydidnotreceivethemoney.马斯克2022年收购推特时发送过类似人事管理局的邮件,要求员工点击链接表明接受"硬核"文化,未点击者被提供遣散费(但诉讼显示部分人声称未收到款项)。Apay-to-quitschememakesitmorecostlyforworkerstofeignenthusiasmforajob.But,asapaperbyRobertDurandHeinerSchmittdielofErasmusUniversityRotterdampointsout,itcanhaveunintendedconsequencesifitisastandingoffer:peoplemayendupjoiningafirminordertoresignandgetanexitbonus.付费离职计划增加了员工伪装工作热情的成本。但鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学的罗伯特·杜尔和海纳·施密特迪尔指出,若将其设为长期政策可能适得其反:有人可能专为领取离职奖金而入职。Theremaybeasubtlerandcheaperwaytopromptresignationsamongpeoplewhoarenotagoodfit.InarecentstudybyNavaAshrafandOrianaBandieraoftheLondonSchoolofEconomicsandVirginiaMinniandLuigiZingalesoftheUniversityofChicago,someemployeesofaconsumer-goodsfirmwereaskedtoreflectonwhatmatteredtothemandwhethertheirjobsfulfilledtheirindividualsenseofpurpose.Inthemonthsfollowingtheseworkshopsexitsfromthecompanyincreasedsubstantiallyamongparticipants,comparedwithemployeeswhodidnottakepart,anddidsoparticularlyamonglowerperformers.Productivityrose.对于人岗不匹配者,存在更巧妙经济的促离职方式。伦敦政经学院纳瓦·阿什拉夫、奥里安娜·班迪耶拉与芝加哥大学维吉尼亚·米尼、路易吉·津加莱斯的联合研究发现:某消费品公司让部分员工反思工作与个人价值目标的契合度后,参与者在随后数月离职率显著高于对照组,且低绩效者尤为明显——而公司整体生产率却得到提升。Thesuccessofaresignationofferdependspartlyonwhatkindoffutureawaitspeoplewhostay.TheOPMemailwarnsgovernmentemployeesthatthereismoredownsizingandrestructuringtocome.Thepeoplemostlikelytotakethemoneyinthesecircumstancesareoftenstrongperformers,whohavethebestchanceoflandinganewjob.离职计划的成效部分取决于留任者面临的未来。人事管理局邮件警告公务员后续将有更多精简重组,这种情况下最可能接受补偿的往往是高绩效者——他们本就更容易找到新工作。ThereissomeindirectevidenceforthiseffectinarecentpaperbyYuyeDingoftheUniversityofPittsburghandherco-authors,whichlooksattheeffectofreturn-to-office(RTO)mandatesonemployeechurn. 匹兹堡大学丁雨叶及其合作者近期关于"返岗令"(RTO)对员工流动影响的研究提供了佐证。Plentyofpeoplesuspectthatbossesrequirepeopletocomebackintotheofficepartlyinordertopromptresignations,andtheevidencefromtheLinkedInprofilesofworkersatfinancialandtechnologyfirmsintheS&P500isthatRTOmandatesdocauseturnovertospike.Theauthorsalsofindthatchurnisgreatestamongwomenandamongmoreexperiencedandskilledworkers,andthatfirmssubsequentlyhavemoretroublefillingvacancies.许多人怀疑企业强制返岗暗含促离职意图,标普500金融科技公司领英数据证实返岗令确实引发离职潮。研究还发现:女性、资深员工和技术人才流失最严重,且企业后续填补空缺难度加大。SuchconsiderationsmaynotmattermuchtotheDOGEfolk,whoseprimaryaimseemstobe evisceration.Butifyouwanttoencourageresignationsandendupwithmorewheatthanchaff,ithelpstohaveacompellingvisionofthefuture.这些考量对"政府效率部"或许无关紧要——他们的首要目标似乎是器官切除式裁员。但若您既希望员工主动辞职,又希望去芜存菁,关键在于为未来描绘令人信服的图景。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:irritation [ˌɪrɪˈteɪʃən]n. 恼怒;刺激acolyte [ˈækəlaɪt]n.助手;随从;侍僧menial [ˈmiːniəl]adj. 单调乏味的;卑微的;琐碎的nudge [nʌdʒ]n. 轻推;暗示 v. 轻推;推动winkleout 巧妙获取;劝离;挖出evisceration [ɪˌvɪsəˈreɪʃən]n. 去除内脏;彻底破坏;大幅削减
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Whyyoushouldrepayyourmortgageearly为什么应该提前还房贷Forthefirsttimeindecades,thearithmeticsuggestssettlinghousingloans几十年来首次出现有利的还贷数学逻辑Theholidayfromreality,forthehappyfewenjoyingit,hasbeendelightful.ThreeyearsagoitwasstillpossibletofixamortgagerateinBritainandmuchoftheeuroareaatsomewherenear1%.Americanhousingloansweredearerbyjustapercentagepointortwo. 对于那些有幸享受低息贷款的人群而言,这段脱离现实的美好时光确实令人愉悦。三年前,英国和欧元区大部分地区仍能申请到1%左右的固定房贷利率。美国房贷利率仅高出1-2个百分点。Evenasinterestrateshaverisenandborrowingcostsfornewmortgageshavedoubledortripled,homeownerswholockedintheenviableratesoftheearly2020shavebeenlivingblissfullyinthepast.Moreover,theinflationthatpromptedratestorisehasbittenchunksoutoftherealvalueoftheirdebt.即便在利率上升、新发放房贷成本翻倍甚至三倍后,那些锁定了2020年代初诱人利率的业主们依然幸福地生活在过去。更妙的是,推高利率的通胀反而大幅削减了债务的实际价值。Alas,theholidayisnowoverformany.AlthoughAmericanfixedratesoftenlastfordecades,mostinBritainandswathesofcontinentalEuropeexpireafterfiveyearsorless.Itwasinearly2022thatthelastofthedirt-cheaploansdisappeared,afterwhichborrowingcostsbeganclimbingfast. 可惜对多数人而言,假期已告终结。虽然美国固定利率通常持续数十年,但英国及欧洲大陆多数地区普遍采用五年或更短期限。2022年初,最后一批超低利率贷款消失后,借贷成本便开始快速攀升。Alargenumberofmortgage-holders,inotherwords,haveeitherseentheirinterestbillsrocketrecentlyorwilldosoon.Forthosewithsparecashtohand,aquestionthatseemedremoteafewyearsagoissuddenlyagreatdealmorepressing.Shouldtheyrepaythedebtearly?这意味着大量房贷客户要么已面临利息激增,要么即将面临这一冲击。对于手头有闲钱的人,几年前还遥不可及的问题突然变得迫在眉睫:是否应该提前还贷?Tomanywhoowedmoneyduringthe1980s,wheninterestratessoaredintothedoubledigits,theanswerisanobvious“yes”.Atthetime,borrowingcostsbecamesoelevatedthatmerelymeetingthem,letalonerepayinganycapitalinaddition,wasaconstantstruggle. 对那些经历过1980年代两位数利率时期的人来说,答案显然是肯定的。当年借贷成本高企,仅支付利息已捉襟见肘,更遑论额外偿还本金。Theriskofthatbeingrepeatedissimplynotworthtaking.Better,then,topayalldebtoffattheearliestopportunity,whiledoingsoisstillpossible.Evenifratesstaywheretheyareatpresent,thatwillsavemoneyonfutureinterestbills.这种风险绝对不值得重蹈覆辙,最佳选择就是在尚有余力时尽早清偿债务。即便利率维持当前水平,也能节省未来利息支出。Thosewhoseexperiencewasshapedbymorerecentdecadesmightfeelratherdifferently.Interestrateshavespentmostofthattimeonadownwardtrend, culminating intheultra-loosemonetarypolicyseenduringthecovid-19pandemic.Nexttothat,itisthehikesofthepastfewyearsthatlooklikean aberration.但受近几十年经历影响的人群可能有不同看法。这期间利率长期下行,在新冠疫情期间更是达到超宽松货币政策的顶点。相比之下,近年来的加息反而像是异常波动。Moreimportant,theopportunitycostofrepayingamortgagehasoutweighedthepotentialsavingsforyears.Thisisespeciallyobvioustothosewhofixednear1%before2022,thenwatchedastheratesonsimplebankaccountsrosetoseveralmultiplesofthat.Undersuchcircumstances,overpayingamortgage,ratherthandepositingthecashandpocketingmuchmoreinterestthanrepayingwouldhavesaved,wouldhavebeennonsensical.更重要的是,多年来提前还贷的机会成本始终高于潜在节省。这对2022年前锁定近1%利率的群体尤为明显——他们眼睁睁看着普通银行存款利率升至该水平的数倍。这种情况下,选择提前还贷而非存款获取更高利息,显然不合逻辑。Theopportunitycostoverthelongerterm,andconsideringthealternativeofinvestinginshares,hasbeengreaterstill.TwentyyearsagomortgageratesinBritainwerenotmuchhigherthantheyarenow,ataround5%.Evenwithaonce-in-a-centuryfinancialcrisislooming,buyingstocksratherthanmakingearlymortgagerepaymentswouldhavepaidoffhandsomely. 若考虑长期机会成本与股票投资的替代选择,差距更为显著。二十年前英国房贷利率约5%,与当前水平相差无几。即便面临百年一遇的金融危机,选择购股而非提前还贷仍能获得丰厚回报。Sincethestartof2005,measuredinpoundssterling,theMSCIWorldshareindexhasgeneratedannualisednominalreturnsofabove10%.Hadyourmortgageratestayedthesameforthenexttwodecades(thoughinrealityitwouldhavefallen),payingoff£1,000($1,250)in2005wouldhavesavedarespectable£1,800ininterest.Investingitinaglobalshare-trackerfundwouldhavemadeaprofitof£6,500,however.自2005年初以来,以英镑计价的MSCI全球股票指数年化名义回报率超10%。假设房贷利率未来二十年维持不变(实际会下降),2005年提前偿还1000英镑(约合1250美元)贷款可节省1800英镑利息,但若投资全球股票指数基金则可获利6500英镑。Today’smortgage-holdersmustaskwhethersuchstellarstockmarketreturnsarestillonoffer.ThoseenjoyedbyBritonshavebeenflatteredbyasteepfallinthevalueofthepound,whichhasboostedthegainsfromforeignsharesasmeasuredinlocalcurrency.Forinvestorsaroundtheworld,aheftyproportionofrecentdecades’highreturnshascomefromballooningstockvaluations. 如今房贷持有者需要思考:股市是否还能提供如此耀眼的回报?英国投资者此前的优异表现得益于英镑大幅贬值,以外币计价的海外股票收益兑换成本币后显著放大。对全球投资者而言,近几十年的高回报很大程度源自股票估值膨胀。Twentyyearsago,forexample,thepriceoftheMSCIWorldindexwas22timesashighasitscompanies’long-runaverageearnings.Nowthatmultiplehasrisento30.Putanotherway,abigshareofthegainscamefrom sentiment ratherthanearnings.Unlessinvestorscontinuetoassignmoreandmorevaluetoeachdollarofcorporateprofit,suchamultiplelimitsthescopeforfutureoutsizereturns.例如二十年前MSCI全球指数市盈率为长期平均盈利的22倍,如今已升至30倍。换言之,大部分收益源于市场情绪而非实际盈利。除非投资者持续给予每美元企业利润更高估值,否则这种市盈率将限制未来超额回报空间。Asaconsequence,repayingyourmortgageearlylooksmoreattractivenowthanithasinaverylongtime,evenincludingthoseperiodswheninterestrateswereattoday’slevelsorhigher.Thatisanoddthoughtforcentralbankers,solongaftertheystartedtighteningmonetarypolicyto quell inflation,andwithmanyofthemhavingspentrecentmonthslooseningitinstead. 综上所述,提前还贷的吸引力已达多年未见的高位——即便在利率与当前持平或更高的历史时期也属罕见。这对央行官员而言颇为讽刺:启动加息抗通胀多年后,多数央行近月反而转向宽松。Borrowerswhoweresufficientlyshrewd,orlucky,tosecureultra-lowratesfordecadesratherthanyearswillbeenjoyingtheirholidayforsometimetocome.Forplentyofothers,reality beckons.那些精明或幸运地锁定数十年超低利率的借款人,仍将继续享受假期。但对更多人而言,是时候直面现实了。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:culminate [ˈkʌlmɪneɪt]v. 达到顶点;以…告终aberration [ˌæbəˈreɪʃn]n. 异常;偏离sentiment [ˈsentɪmənt]n. 情绪;观点quell [kwel]v. 平息;镇压beckon [ˈbekən]v. 召唤;示意;吸引
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HowtohelpyoungAfricansthrive如何助力非洲青年大展宏图Astherestoftheworldages,youngAfricansarebecomingmoreimportant当世界其他地区渐趋老龄化,非洲青年正成为全球重要力量Somegenerationscomeofagejustastheircountriesriseeconomically.ThinkofAmerica’sbabyboomers,China’smillennialsandperhapsIndia’sGenerationZ.Butthereisanothergloballysignificantcohortthatreceivesfarlessattention—whatthisweekwecallAfrica’s“generationhustle”.某些世代恰逢国家经济腾飞之时步入社会舞台,如美国婴儿潮世代、中国千禧一代及印度Z世代。而另一个具有全球意义的群体却鲜少被关注——我们本周称之为非洲"拼搏一代"。Thesheersizeofthisgroupmeansthat theywillshapetheworld.Over60%ofpeoplelivinginsub-SaharanAfricaareyoungerthan25.By2030halfofallnew entrants tothe“globallabourforce”willcomefromsub-SaharanAfrica.By2050Africawillhavemoreyoungpeoplethananywhereelse.这一群体的庞大规模将重塑世界格局。撒哈拉以南非洲地区逾60%人口年龄不足25岁。至2030年,全球新增劳动力半数将来自该地区。2050年前,非洲青年人口规模将冠绝全球。AscountriesinEurope,AsiaandtheAmericasageandshrink,Africa’spopulationwillcontinuetogrowandremainyouthful.UnderstandingthisgenerationandtheiradversitiesisanurgentmatternotjustforAfricans,butforeveryone.当欧亚美洲渐趋老龄化与人口萎缩之际,非洲人口将持续增长并保持年轻化。理解这一世代及其面临的挑战,不仅是非洲更是全人类的当务之急。Theyarelikelytosurpriseyou.YoungAfricansarebettereducatedand,thankstotheinternetandsocialmedia,moreawareofthewiderworldthantheirparentswere. 这个世代将颠覆固有认知。得益于互联网与社交媒体,非洲青年教育程度显著提升,国际视野远超父辈。Unlikepreviousgenerations,theyhavenomemoriesofcolonialism.Theycombineanindividualistic,enterprisingoutlookwith piety andastreakofsocialconservatism.MuchofthatisboundupinaturntoPentecostalismanditsprosperity gospel,whichhighlightsprayerasapathtomaterialsuccess.他们未经历殖民记忆,融合个人奋斗精神与宗教热忱,兼具社会保守倾向。这种特质与五旬节派及其"成功神学"密切相关——该教派强调通过祷告实现物质成功。Forprosperityiswhatthisgenerationlacks.Theyarefrustratedwiththeirshortageofopportunities.Afterapromisingburstofactivityinthe2000s,muchofAfricahassinceenduredoveradecadeofweakornon-existentgrowth.Stagnatingeconomiesarenotcreatingenoughgoodjobstofulfilyoungpeople’saspirations.物质成功恰是这个世代最匮乏的。机会短缺令他们倍感挫折。继21世纪初经济短暂繁荣后,非洲多数地区已历经十余年增长停滞。经济困局难以为青年抱负提供优质就业岗位。YoungAfricanshaverespondedbyfindingcreativewaystomakeendsmeet.Somecombineformalworkwithsidehustles.Othersjugglemultiplegigsintheinformaleconomy.Butmostwouldstillmuchratherhaveaproperjob.非洲青年以创新方式应对生存挑战:有人本职与副业兼顾,更多人在非正规经济中多线谋生。但绝大多数仍渴求体面工作。Theirlackofprospectsisadisasterforacontinentthatbadlyneedsitsyoungpeopletorealisetheireconomicpotential.Apartfromcausingindividualanguish,itisalsoarisktodemocraticstability. 对亟需释放青年经济潜能的非洲大陆而言,这种前景缺失堪称灾难。除造成个人困顿外,更威胁民主稳定。Youngpeopleonthecontinentarescepticalofthepoliticalsystemsthathavefailedthem.RecentprotestsinKenya,NigeriaandMozambiquehaveshownthattheirdissatisfactioncanthreatengovernments.Frustrationattheirlackofopportunitiesandatpoliticians’indifferencetotheirplightistemptingsomemembersofgenerationhustletoputtheirhopeinstrongmenandauthoritarianpolitics.青年对失能政治体系日益怀疑,肯尼亚、尼日利亚、莫桑比克近期抗议活动表明,这种不满可能颠覆政权。机会匮乏与政客漠视,正驱使部分青年将希望寄托于强人政治。Thethreatwillspillacrossborders.MorethanhalfofyoungAfricanssaythattheywanttoleavetheirowncountriesandmaketheirfortunesabroad.ForAfricangovernmentsandtheworldatlarge,itisthereforeimportanttoharnessthehustle.这种威胁将跨越国界。超半数非洲青年渴望赴海外谋生。因此,对非洲各国及国际社会而言,善用这种拼搏精神至关重要。Someofthenecessarychangesinattitudearealreadyinplaceinrichcountries,whereyoungAfricansaremakingtheirmark.Theircontinent’scinemaandmusicaretakingtheworldbystorm.RestaurateurshavewonMichelinstarsinLondon.EntrepreneurshaveenrichedthestartupsceneinEuropeandAmerica. 部分观念转变已在发达国家显现。非洲青年正崭露头角:大陆电影音乐风靡全球,餐饮业者在伦敦斩获米其林星级,创业者丰富欧美初创生态。Doneright,emigrationwillhelphostcountriesarrestdemographicdeclineandfixlabourshortages.HostsocietieswillalsobenefitfromyoungAfricans’enterprise,justasthe diaspora willchannelmoney,skillsandideasbacktoAfrica.合理引导移民潮,既有助于东道国缓解人口衰退与用工荒,又能通过侨汇、技术反哺与理念传播实现双赢。Yetthemostimportantchangesshouldhappenathome.Aswearguedinourspecialreportearlierthisyear,Africangovernmentsneedtoreformtheireconomies.Iftheywanttocreatemoreopportunitiesforambitiousyoungsterstheyneedtofocusongrowth. 但最关键转变应发生在非洲本土。正如我们今年特别报告所言,非洲各国亟需经济改革。要为有志青年创造机遇,必须聚焦经济增长。YoungAfricansalreadyknowthattheyneedprosperitytoachievetheirdreams.Theyhavethecan-domindsettodotheirpart.Itisuptotheirgovernmentstoenablethemtothrive.非洲青年深谙繁荣是实现梦想的基石,他们已具备积极进取的拼搏精神。现在轮到各国政府为其创造腾飞条件了。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:entrant [ˈentrənt]n. 新进入者;新加入者;参赛者piety [ˈpaɪəti]n. 虔诚;孝顺;笃信gospel [ˈɡɑːsp(ə)l]n. 福音;真理;信条;重要原则(或道理)diaspora [daɪˈæspərə]n. 散居国外者;侨民群体
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It’snotjustAI.China’smedicinesaresurprisingtheworld,too不仅仅是人工智能,中国的医药产业也在惊艳世界Itsfirmsareattheforefrontofcheaper,fasterdrugdiscovery中国药企正以更低成本、更快速度领跑药物研发Keytruda,acancermedicine,ranksamongthemost lucrative drugseversold.Sinceitslaunchin2014ithasrakedinmorethan$130bninsalesforMerck,itsAmericanmaker,including$29.5bnlastyear. 可瑞达是一种抗癌药物,位列全球最畅销药品之列。自2014年上市以来,其美国制造商默克通过该药已斩获超过1300亿美元的销售额,仅去年就达295亿美元。InSeptemberlastyearanexperimentaldrugdidwhatnonehaddonebefore.Inlate-stagetrialsfornon-smallcelllungcancer,itnearlydoubledthetimepatientslivedwithoutthediseasegettingworse—to11.1months,comparedwith5.8monthsforKeytruda.然而去年9月,一款实验性药物取得了前所未有的突破:在针对非小细胞肺癌的III期临床试验中,该药将患者无进展生存期(即病情未恶化的时间)从可瑞达的5.8个月延长至11.1个月,几乎翻倍。Theresultswerestunning.Sotoowasthenationalityofthebiotechcompanybehindthem.AkesoisChinese.这一结果令人惊叹,而研发该药的生物技术公司——康方生物——同样引人注目,因为它来自中国。InrecentmonthsChina’sprogressinartificialintelligencehasstunnedtheworld.Aquieteryetequallysignificantshiftisunderwayinbiotech.Chinahaslongbeenknownforchurningoutgenericdrugs,supplyingrawingredientsandmanagingclinicaltrialsforthepharmaceuticalworld. 过去几个月,中国在人工智能领域的突破引发全球关注。而在生物科技领域,一场同样意义深远的变革正在悄然发生。长期以来,中国以仿制药生产、原料药供应以及为全球药企提供临床试验服务著称。Butitsdrugmakersarenowalsoatthecuttingedge,producinginnovativemedicinesthatarecheaperthantheonestheycompetewith.Chinahasbecomethesecond-largestdeveloperofnewdrugs,behindonlyAmerica.然而,如今中国药企已跻身创新药物研发前沿,生产出价格更低廉的同类产品。中国已成为全球第二大新药研发国,仅次于美国。Asaconsequence,Westerndrugmakersareincreasinglylookingeastforideas.Becauseofexpiringdrugpatents,theystandtoloseasmuchas$140bnayearinsalesby2030.Lastyearnearlyathirdofthelargelicensingdealstheystruck—thoseworth$50mormore—werewithChinesefirms,tripletheshareof2020. 受专利到期影响,西方药企到2030年或将面临每年高达1400亿美元的销售额损失。在此背景下,它们愈发将目光投向东方寻求创新。去年,西方药企达成的近三分之一大型授权交易(价值5000万美元以上)均与中国企业合作,这一比例是2020年的三倍。LEK,aconsultancy,estimatesthatduringthattime,thetotalvalueofdrugslicensedworldwidefromChinarose15-fold,to$48bn.InNovemberMerckpaid$588mtoLaNovaMedicines,anotherChinesebiotechfirm,tosecurerightstoatherapysimilartothatproducedbyAkeso.咨询公司 LEK 的数据显示,同期全球从中国授权的药物总价值增长了15倍,达到480亿美元。去年11月,默克向另一家中国生物科技公司礼新医药支付5.88亿美元,以获得类似康方生物疗法的开发权。China’sgovernmentidentifiedbiotechasastrategicprioritynearlytwodecadesago.Butitwasnotuntil2015thatthingsreallytookoff,afterthedrugregulatorlaunchedambitiousreforms. 中国早在二十年前就将生物科技列为战略重点,但直到2015年,随着药品监管机构启动雄心勃勃的改革,行业才真正迎来腾飞。Ittookonmorestaffandcleareda backlog of20,000drugapplicationsintwoyears.Clinicaltrialswerestreamlinedandbroughtintostepwithglobalstandards.AstudybyYiminCuiofPekingUniversityandcolleaguesfoundthatthetimetakentoapprovethefirstroundofhumantrialsfellto87days,from501daysbeforethereforms.监管机构扩充人员队伍,两年内清理了2万份积压的药品申请;临床试验流程得到简化,并逐步与国际标准接轨。北京大学崔一民教授团队的研究显示,改革后,首次人体临床试验的审批时间从501天缩短至87天。Thechangescoincidedwithawaveofreturning“seaturtles”,thetermforChinesepeoplewhostudiedorworkedabroad.China’svastdomesticmarkethelpedtoattractbigdrugmakerstoitsshores,bringingknow-howandtalent.Easierlistingrulesgavebiotechinvestorsaclearerpathtoexit.PrivatefundingforChinesebiotechfirmsrosefrom$1bnin2016to$13.4bnin2021.改革恰逢“海归潮”,大批曾在海外学习或工作的中国人才回国发展。庞大的国内市场吸引跨国药企纷纷在华设立研发中心,带来先进技术与管理经验。与此同时,上市规则的放宽为生物科技投资者提供了更清晰的退出路径。2016年至2021年,中国生物科技企业的私募融资从10亿美元激增至134亿美元。Withmorebrainsandmoney,ChinesefirmsmovedbeyondcopyingWesterndrugs.Insteadofwaitingforpatentstoexpireandmakinggenerics,theyadopteda“fast-follower”strategy—takingknowndrugsandmodifyingthemtoimprovesafety,efficacyordelivery. 有了资金与人才的支持,中国企业不再局限于仿制西方药物,而是转向“快速跟进”策略——在已知药物基础上进行改良,提升安全性、疗效或给药方式。Drugdevelopmenttypicallystartsbyidentifyingatarget,usuallyaproteinorgenelinkedtoadisease.Scientiststhensearchformoleculesthatcaneitherblockorboostthetarget’sfunction.Sincefast-followersarenotstartingfromscratch,theycanrunspeedier,cheapertrials.药物研发通常始于确定靶点(通常为与疾病相关的蛋白质或基因),随后科学家寻找能够阻断或增强靶点功能的分子。由于“快速跟进”策略无需从零开始,因此临床试验速度更快、成本更低。Between2021and2024thenumberofChinesedrugsindevelopmentdoubledto4,391.Fast-followerandcompletelyoriginaltreatmentsmadeupnearly42%ofthepipeline. 2021年至2024年,中国在研药物数量翻番,达到4391种,其中“快速跟进”和完全原创药物占研发管线的近42%。HelenChenfromLEKnotesthatChina’sapproachhasbeenparticularlyeffectiveinADCs,acancermedicineinwhichanantibodyisattachedtoapayloadofchemotherapyviaachemicallinker.Sincethetreatment’scorecomponentsalreadyexist,successdependsoncombiningtheminthemosteffectiveway.MsChenbelievesthisiswhereChinesefirmsthrive.LEK 的陈海伦指出,中国在抗体偶联药物(ADCs)领域尤为成功。ADCs 是一种将抗体与化疗药物通过化学连接子结合的抗癌药物,其核心组件已存在,成功关键在于以最有效的方式组合这些组件。陈海伦认为,这正是中国药企的优势所在。Speedisanotheradvantage,saysMichelleXia,founderofAkeso.“Wecandothingstwiceoreventhreetimesfasterthananywhereelseintheworld,”sheclaims.Clinicaltrials—thelongestandmostexpensivestageofdrugdevelopment—arefasterthanintheWest.Alargepatientpopulationmakesrecruitmenteasy,andhospitalsanddoctorsareincentivisedbythegovernmenttosupportresearch.康方生物创始人夏瑜表示:“我们的研发速度是全球其他地区的两到三倍。”临床试验是药物研发中耗时最长、成本最高的阶段,而中国凭借庞大的患者群体,使招募受试者变得更为容易;同时,政府激励医院和医生支持科研,进一步加速了临床试验进程。FastertrialshavemadeChinesedrugsevenmoreattractivetoglobaldrugmakers.ThoughtheclinicalinformationisfrommostlyChinesepatients,ratherthanawidersample,ithelpsinvestorsandpharmafirmsspotpromisingtreatments. 更快的临床试验使中国药物对全球药企更具吸引力。尽管临床数据主要来自中国患者,但这些数据有助于投资者和药企识别具有潜力的疗法。AndasthequalityofdatafromChinahasimproved,regulatorsarepayingattention.ResultsfromAkeso’sChinesetrialswerestrongenoughtoconvinceAmerica’sFoodandDrugAdministrationtomovethedrugstraighttolate-stagetrials.随着中国数据质量的提升,监管机构也开始予以关注。康方生物的临床试验结果甚至说服美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)直接批准其药物进入III期试验。FewChinesefirmsselldrugsinAmericadirectly.Insteadtheytendtostrikelicensingdeals:acompanysellstherightstomarketitsdrugoutsideChinaforanupfrontpaymentandotherfees.Akeso’sKeytrudarivalwaslicensedtoSummitTherapeutics,anAmericanbiotech,for$500mupfront,withupto$5bninadditionalpaymentsandashareofroyalties.目前,中国企业直接在美国销售药物的情况较少,更倾向于通过授权协议实现海外布局:企业将药物海外市场的销售权授予合作伙伴,换取首付款和其他费用。例如,康方生物的可瑞达竞争对手药物以5亿美元首付款、最高50亿美元里程碑付款及销售分成的方式授权给美国生物科技公司 SummitTherapeutics。Anotherapproachisthe“NewCo”model.ThisinvolvesaChinesepharmacompanyspinningoffitsclinicalassetsintoanAmericanentityrunbyanexperiencedlocalmanagementteam.Theparentfirmretainspartialownership,allowingittobenefitbeyondroyaltiesifthedrugsucceeds.Jefferies,aninvestmentbank,saysthatabouteightsuchcompanieshavebeenformedsinceMay.另一种模式是“NewCo”模式:中国药企将临床资产剥离至由经验丰富的本土管理团队运营的美国实体,母公司保留部分股权,以便在药物成功时获得超越版税的收益。投资银行 Jefferies 数据显示,自5月以来,已有约8家此类公司成立。China’sbiotechboomisnotwithoutrisks.Theriseinlicensingdealshidesafundingcrunchamongyoungfirms.PrivateinvestmentinChinesebiotechfelltoaseven-yearlowin2024,mirroringaslowdowninglobalbiotechmarkets.Investorsareprioritisingcompaniesthatgeneratecashorhavestronginternationalpotential. 中国生物科技产业的繁荣背后也暗藏危机。授权交易激增的背后,是初创企业面临的融资困境。2024年,中国生物科技私人投资降至七年来最低水平,与全球生物科技市场放缓趋势一致。投资者更青睐能够产生现金流或具有强大国际潜力的公司。JimmyZhang,aninvestorbasedinSanFrancisco,worriesthatmanyoftoday’slicensingdealsareaproductofthepastfundingboom.Withoutfreshinvestment,hewarns,China’sdrugpipelinecouldstarttorundry.旧金山投资者吉米·张担心,当前许多授权交易是过去融资热潮的产物,若缺乏新投资,中国药物研发管线或将枯竭。AbiggerconcernisrisingtensionswithAmerica.Becausedrugpricesintheworld’slargesteconomyarelesstightlycontrolledthantheyareathome,AmericanpatientsareabigsourceofrevenueforChinesebiotechfirms.更大的挑战来自中美关系紧张。由于美国药品价格管控相对宽松,美国患者是中国药企的重要收入来源。SofarAmericahasonlyappliedtraderestrictionstohigh-techgoods;Chinesebiotechhasescapedsimilarscrutiny.AnattempttoblockChinesefirmsfromsupplyingsomebiotechservicesandequipmenthasstalledinCongress.But,withDonaldTrumpthreateningtoimposetariffsonpharmaceuticalimports,biotechmaynotbeabletoescape unscathed formuchlonger. 目前,美国仅对高科技产品实施贸易限制,中国生物科技尚未受到类似审查。一项试图阻止中国企业供应某些生物科技服务和设备的法案在国会受阻。然而,随着唐纳德·特朗普威胁对药品进口加征关税,生物科技领域或难以长期独善其身。TheapproachofsellingtoAmericavialicensingdealsmayonlyofferlimitedprotection;alreadyChinesebiotechfirmsaregettinglowerlicensingfeesfortheirexperimentaldrugsthanAmericancounterparts,becauseofgeopoliticalrisks.ImpressiveasthepaceofChineseinnovationis,itwillhavetocontendwithsomemightygeopoliticalforces.通过授权协议向美国销售药物的模式可能只能提供有限保护,受地缘政治风险影响,中国药企的实验性药物授权费用已低于美国同行。中国创新的速度固然惊人,但未来仍须与强大的地缘政治力量博弈。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:lucrative [ˈluːkrətɪv]adj. 有利可图的;赚钱的;获利多的backlog [ˈbæklɒɡ]n. 积压的工作(或订单等);未完成的事务unscathed [ʌnˈskeɪðd]adj. 未受伤害的;未受损伤的;安然无恙的
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