Only ‘1 in 10 people under 44 can afford to buy a first home’

仅10%的44岁以下人群买得起首套房

Only one in ten young people who rent their home can afford to get on the housing ladder, new research suggests, threatening the viability of the government's housebuilding target.

一项新的研究表明，在租房的年轻人中，仅有十分之一的人有能力购买首套房，这给政府设定的建房目标能否实现带来了威胁。

Ministers have set a goal of 1.5 million new homes over the next four years and promised restore what Sir Keir Starmer has called the "dream of home ownership".

大臣们设定了未来四年建造150万套新住房的目标，并承诺恢复基尔·斯塔默爵士所说的“拥有住房的梦想”。

But new analysis suggests that many first-time buyers will struggle to afford the new homes being built, and developers have said they will not build more if there is no demand at current prices.

然而，新的分析显示，许多首次购房者将难以负担得起正在建造的新房，开发商也表示，如果当前价格下没有需求，他们不会建造更多房屋。

Economic modelling estimated that 10.4 per cent of people aged 20 to 44 who do not own a property are in a financial position to purchase a first home.

根据公共优先咨询公司为住宅建筑商联合会撰写的一份报告，经济模型估算，在20至44岁且没有房产的人群中，仅有10.4%的人有经济能力购买首套房。

However, many in this group were only able to buy because they were in a relationship, giving them double the purchasing power. The report estimated that 2.9 per cent of young single adults were in a financial position to get on the housing ladder.

不过，该群体中的许多人之所以能买房，是因为他们处于恋爱关系中，这使他们的购买力翻倍。报告估算，仅有2.9%的年轻单身成年人有经济能力迈入购房行列。

The trend is driven by poor wage growth, low rates of savings and stubbornly high house prices, according to a report by the Public First consultancy for the Home Builders Federation.

公共优先咨询公司为住宅建筑商联合会撰写的这份报告指出，这一趋势是由工资增长缓慢、储蓄率低以及房价居高不下所导致的。

It found that if all those people who were in a financial position to buy a home were to do so over the next five years, this would result in only 69,000 first-time buyers a year. This is significantly below the typical annual number of first-time mortgaged purchases, which usually ranges from 200,000 to 300,000.

报告发现，如果所有有经济能力购房的人都在未来五年内买房，那么每年仅有6.9万名首次购房者。这一数字远低于典型的年度首次购房贷款人数，通常在20万至30万之间。

Ministers hope that doubling the number of houses built over the next five years will lead to a fall in house prices, making it easier for young people to buy. But the industry argues that given construction costs and tight profit margins, developers will not build the number of homes the government wants.

大臣们希望，未来五年将建房数量翻倍会导致房价下跌，从而使年轻人更容易购房。但建筑行业认为，鉴于建筑成本高和利润空间小，开发商不会建造政府期望数量的住房。

"The homebuilding industry faces major challenges that continue to deter investment in new sites," Neil Jefferson, the chief executive of the federation, said. "Without a prospective buyer base, supported by affordable mortgage finance, builders will be hard-pressed to make the significant investments necessary to boost housing supply."

该联合会首席执行官尼尔·杰斐逊表示：“住宅建筑行业面临着重大挑战，这些挑战继续阻碍对新地块的投资，如果没有潜在的购房群体，且没有可负担的抵押贷款支持，建筑商将很难进行必要的重大投资来增加住房供应。”

First-time buyers account for a significant percentage of the housing market, particularly for new homes. About a third of all homes are sold to first-time buyers, rising to half in London.

首次购房者在住房市场中占有相当大的比例，尤其是在新房市场。约三分之一的房屋售给了首次购房者，在伦敦这一比例上升至一半。

The federation is calling on ministers to bring back a version of the last government's Help to Buy equity loan scheme which came to an end in 2023. This would give first-time buyers interest-free loans for the first five years with deposits of as little as 5 per cent.

该联合会呼吁大臣们恢复上一届政府“购房援助计划”的某个版本，该计划于2023年结束。这将为首次购房者提供前五年免息贷款，首付比例可低至 5%。

It argues that Rachel Reeves's new borrowing rules mean the scheme would be treated as capital investment and would not count towards day-to-day government debt.

联合会认为，蕾切尔·里夫斯新出台的借贷规则意味着该计划将被视为资本投资，不会计入政府的日常债务。

Jack Airey, the housing and infrastructure director at Public First, said help was needed because housing demand was "much weaker than commonly thought for first-time buyers".

公共优先咨询公司的住房和基础设施主管杰克·艾雷表示，需要提供帮助，因为首次购房者的住房需求“远比人们普遍认为的要弱”。

"Our research finds that without significant wage growth, or a scheme that makes low deposit mortgages more affordable and accessible, they will be cut off from home ownership for years or decades to come," he said. "A shrinking first-time buyer market is ruinous for the government's housebuilding targets. We find the number of first-time buyers over the next five years could be a third of the normal rate. If fewer people can buy homes, fewer will be built."

他说：“我们的研究发现，如果没有显著的工资增长，或者没有能让低首付抵押贷款更实惠、更易获得的计划，他们在未来数年或数十年内都将与拥有住房无缘，首次购房者市场萎缩，将对政府的建房目标造成毁灭性打击。我们发现，未来五年首次购房者的数量可能仅为正常水平的三分之一。如果买房的人少了，建造的房屋也会减少。”

The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government said: "We're committed to supporting first-time buyers with a new permanent mortgage guarantee scheme, helping them take their first crucial step on the ladder with a small deposit. This is on top of our new investment of £800 million to deliver the biggest boost in affordable and social housing in a generation."

英国住房、社区与地方政府部表示：“我们致力于通过新的永久性抵押贷款担保计划支持首次购房者，帮助他们以小额首付迈出购房的第一步。除此之外，我们还投资8亿英镑，为一代人提供最大规模的保障性住房和社会住房建设支持。”