London is ageing twice as quickly as the rest of England

伦敦老龄化速度是全英格兰的两倍

Partly because it’s a nice place to be old

部分原因在于这里适合养老

Some londoners dream of retiring to cottages by the sea. But Nick Sanderson, the chief executive of Audley Group, believes that desires are shifting. His company has built flats for retirees in Clapham, in south London, and will soon start building 150 more in Brent Cross, in the north-west of the city. It hopes to create a retirement village in Canada Water, in the east London docklands. “Why would you choose to go and live out in the middle of nowhere?” he asks.

一些伦敦人梦想退休后搬到海边小屋居住。但奥德利集团首席执行官尼克·桑德森认为人们的意愿正在改变。他的公司在伦敦南部的克拉彭区为退休人士建造了公寓，很快还将在西北部的布伦特十字区新建150套此类住房，并希望在东部码头区的加拿大水区打造一个退休社区。他反问道："为什么要选择去偏僻之地生活呢？"

London’s population is certainly altering. Between 2011 and 2023 the median age of its inhabitants rose by two years, from just under 34 to just under 36. Although the city is younger than England and Wales as a whole, it is ageing more than twice as quickly. Compared with cities like Exeter, Manchester and Nottingham, which have universities and relatively cheap homes, it seems decidedly creaky.

伦敦的人口结构确实在发生变化。2011年至2023年间，居民年龄中位数从略低于34岁上升至略低于36岁。虽然整体而言伦敦仍比英格兰和威尔士其他地区年轻，但其老龄化速度却是这些地区的两倍多。与埃克塞特、曼彻斯特和诺丁汉等拥有大学和相对廉价住房的城市相比，伦敦的老龄化趋势显得尤为明显。

A report published last month by the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank, suggests that three changes are responsible for this trend. London has fewer babies than it used to. Young adults make up a smaller share of its population than in the past. And the ranks of the middle-aged and old are swelling.

智库决议基金会上月发布的报告指出，三个因素共同导致了这一趋势：伦敦新生儿数量减少、年轻人口占比下降，以及中老年人口规模扩大。

London experienced a remarkable baby boom in the first decade of this century. Since then it has suffered a crash. Between 2010 and 2023 the capital’s fertility rate, which is expressed as the number of births per woman, fell from 2.0 to 1.4—a slightly faster decline than in England and Wales as a whole. The fertility rate in inner London is 1.2, close to the national levels in Italy and Japan, two rich countries that are well known for their rapidly ageing populations. Around the capital, primary schools are closing.

本世纪头十年伦敦曾经历显著婴儿潮，此后却遭遇断崖式下跌。2010至2023年间，首都生育率（每位女性生育数）从2.0降至1.4，下降速度略快于英格兰和威尔士整体水平。内伦敦地区生育率仅为1.2，接近以快速老龄化著称的意大利和日本等富裕国家的全国水平。首都周边地区的小学正在陆续关闭。

The shortage of young adults might not be quite as acute as official statistics suggest. Recent population estimates are influenced by the last census, which was conducted in the covid-ravaged month of March 2021. Around that time, some young people abandoned their cramped city-centre flats for suburbia. Now that covid is a mere nuisance, and more employers are insisting that people work in the office, a portion may have crept back into the city, unnoticed by statisticians.

年轻人口短缺的严重程度或许不及官方数据显示的那么严峻。最新人口估算受到2021年3月疫情肆虐期间开展的最近一次人口普查影响。当时部分年轻人逃离拥挤的市中心迁居郊区。随着疫情威胁消退，更多雇主要求员工返岗办公，可能有部分人悄然回归城市，但未被统计部门察觉。

But perhaps not a large portion. The pandemic, and the rise in home-working that it triggered, wiped out some of the retail and hospitality jobs that used to draw young people to London. An index of transactions at Pret, a sandwich chain, shows that sales in shops serving London’s city workers were just 63% of pre-pandemic levels last October.

不过回流规模可能有限。疫情引发的远程办公浪潮，消除了零售和餐饮业等曾吸引年轻人来伦敦的传统就业机会。连锁三明治品牌Pret的交易指数显示，去年10月服务于伦敦金融城上班族的门店销售额仅为疫情前水平的63%。

Immigrants, who are often young, seem to be shunning the capital for cheaper places outside the city limits, such as Thurrock to the east and Watford to the north. Between 2011 and 2021 the proportion of foreign-born people in Newham, an ethnically diverse borough of inner London, was flat. In Lambeth, another inner London borough, the share fell. When Britain left the EU in 2020 it created an immigration system that favours health and care workers. Health and care jobs can be found all over the country, not just in London.

年轻移民群体似乎更青睐瑟罗克（东部）和沃特福德（北部）等城郊廉价区域。2011至2021年间，内伦敦多元文化社区纽汉姆区的外国出生人口比例保持稳定，而在兰贝斯等另一个内伦敦行政区，该比例甚至出现下降。英国2020年脱欧后建立的移民体系优先医护工作者，而这类岗位在全国各地而非仅限伦敦存在。

The baby bust might end; young adults could return to the city. By contrast, the rise of middle-aged and old people appears to be inexorable. The Greater London Authority (GLA), which oversees the capital, estimates that the number of people aged 50 or over rose by more than 400,000 between 2014 and 2024, accounting for more than four-fifths of overall population growth in the city. The GLA expects similar growth over the next decade. Parts of suburban London, such as Richmond upon Thames, in the west, are greying at high speed.

婴儿荒或许会终止，年轻人可能重返都市。相比之下，中老年人口增长似乎势不可挡。大伦敦政府估算，2014至2024年间50岁以上人口增加超40万，占全市人口增长总量的五分之四以上。该机构预计未来十年将保持相似增速。里士满等伦敦郊区正在加速老龄化。

“The culture has changed,” argues Patrick Devlin, an architect who designs retirement homes, among other buildings. The desire to move to a seaside bungalow is giving way to the desire to live near friends and cultural amenities. 

设计退休社区的建筑师帕特里克·德夫林指出："文化观念已经改变。"人们不再执着于海滨平房，转而追求便利的社交圈和文化设施。

London is exceptionally well supplied with the latter, and with superb public transport, which can be ridden gratis by Londoners from the age of 60 (elsewhere people must wait until 66). Despite the paranoid rants of some American populists, the city has grown safe. Cumbria and Hampshire have higher rates of violent crime.

伦敦不仅拥有首屈一指的文化资源，公共交通系统对60岁以上居民免费开放（其他地区需年满66岁）。尽管某些美国民粹主义者危言耸听，但伦敦治安持续改善——坎布里亚郡和汉普郡的暴力犯罪率更高。

“It’s a more pleasant city to live in—if you have the money,” says Richard Brown, a London-watcher. Middle-aged and old Londoners often do have the money, or at least the wealth, because they bought their homes when prices were more reasonable than they are today. Others settle as close to the city as they can, and commute when they must.

伦敦观察家理查德·布朗说："只要经济宽裕，这是座宜居之城。"多数中老年市民确实具备这样的经济实力，至少拥有房产财富（购入时价格远低于现价）。其他人则尽可能定居近郊，必要时通勤入城。

In the long run, the fact that London is such a hard place for children and young adults should be concerning, because it suggests that the city could gradually become less exciting and dynamic. For now, however, there is a concert at the Royal Festival Hall, and a bus is pulling up. Where’s that free pass?

长远来看，伦敦对青少年群体的不友好令人担忧，这可能导致城市活力逐渐衰退。但此刻，皇家节日音乐厅的演出即将开场，公交车正缓缓进站。那张免费乘车卡放哪儿了？

（红色标注词为重难点词汇）

重难点词汇：

nuisance [ˈnjuːsns] n. 麻烦事；讨厌的人（或东西）

inexorable [ɪnˈeksərəbl] adj. 不可阻挡的；不可改变的

amenity [əˈmiːnəti] n. 便利设施；生活福利设施

paranoid [ˈpærənɔɪd] adj. 偏执的；多疑的