Whyyoushouldrepayyourmortgageearly为什么应该提前还房贷Forthefirsttimeindecades,thearithmeticsuggestssettlinghousingloans几十年来首次出现有利的还贷数学逻辑Theholidayfromreality,forthehappyfewenjoyingit,hasbeendelightful.ThreeyearsagoitwasstillpossibletofixamortgagerateinBritainandmuchoftheeuroareaatsomewherenear1%.Americanhousingloansweredearerbyjustapercentagepointortwo. 对于那些有幸享受低息贷款的人群而言，这段脱离现实的美好时光确实令人愉悦。三年前，英国和欧元区大部分地区仍能申请到1%左右的固定房贷利率。美国房贷利率仅高出1-2个百分点。Evenasinterestrateshaverisenandborrowingcostsfornewmortgageshavedoubledortripled,homeownerswholockedintheenviableratesoftheearly2020shavebeenlivingblissfullyinthepast.Moreover,theinflationthatpromptedratestorisehasbittenchunksoutoftherealvalueoftheirdebt.即便在利率上升、新发放房贷成本翻倍甚至三倍后，那些锁定了2020年代初诱人利率的业主们依然幸福地生活在过去。更妙的是，推高利率的通胀反而大幅削减了债务的实际价值。Alas,theholidayisnowoverformany.AlthoughAmericanfixedratesoftenlastfordecades,mostinBritainandswathesofcontinentalEuropeexpireafterfiveyearsorless.Itwasinearly2022thatthelastofthedirt-cheaploansdisappeared,afterwhichborrowingcostsbeganclimbingfast. 可惜对多数人而言，假期已告终结。虽然美国固定利率通常持续数十年，但英国及欧洲大陆多数地区普遍采用五年或更短期限。2022年初，最后一批超低利率贷款消失后，借贷成本便开始快速攀升。Alargenumberofmortgage-holders,inotherwords,haveeitherseentheirinterestbillsrocketrecentlyorwilldosoon.Forthosewithsparecashtohand,aquestionthatseemedremoteafewyearsagoissuddenlyagreatdealmorepressing.Shouldtheyrepaythedebtearly?这意味着大量房贷客户要么已面临利息激增，要么即将面临这一冲击。对于手头有闲钱的人，几年前还遥不可及的问题突然变得迫在眉睫：是否应该提前还贷？Tomanywhoowedmoneyduringthe1980s,wheninterestratessoaredintothedoubledigits,theanswerisanobvious“yes”.Atthetime,borrowingcostsbecamesoelevatedthatmerelymeetingthem,letalonerepayinganycapitalinaddition,wasaconstantstruggle. 对那些经历过1980年代两位数利率时期的人来说，答案显然是肯定的。当年借贷成本高企，仅支付利息已捉襟见肘，更遑论额外偿还本金。Theriskofthatbeingrepeatedissimplynotworthtaking.Better,then,topayalldebtoffattheearliestopportunity,whiledoingsoisstillpossible.Evenifratesstaywheretheyareatpresent,thatwillsavemoneyonfutureinterestbills.这种风险绝对不值得重蹈覆辙，最佳选择就是在尚有余力时尽早清偿债务。即便利率维持当前水平，也能节省未来利息支出。Thosewhoseexperiencewasshapedbymorerecentdecadesmightfeelratherdifferently.Interestrateshavespentmostofthattimeonadownwardtrend, culminating intheultra-loosemonetarypolicyseenduringthecovid-19pandemic.Nexttothat,itisthehikesofthepastfewyearsthatlooklikean aberration.但受近几十年经历影响的人群可能有不同看法。这期间利率长期下行，在新冠疫情期间更是达到超宽松货币政策的顶点。相比之下，近年来的加息反而像是异常波动。Moreimportant,theopportunitycostofrepayingamortgagehasoutweighedthepotentialsavingsforyears.Thisisespeciallyobvioustothosewhofixednear1%before2022,thenwatchedastheratesonsimplebankaccountsrosetoseveralmultiplesofthat.Undersuchcircumstances,overpayingamortgage,ratherthandepositingthecashandpocketingmuchmoreinterestthanrepayingwouldhavesaved,wouldhavebeennonsensical.更重要的是，多年来提前还贷的机会成本始终高于潜在节省。这对2022年前锁定近1%利率的群体尤为明显——他们眼睁睁看着普通银行存款利率升至该水平的数倍。这种情况下，选择提前还贷而非存款获取更高利息，显然不合逻辑。Theopportunitycostoverthelongerterm,andconsideringthealternativeofinvestinginshares,hasbeengreaterstill.TwentyyearsagomortgageratesinBritainwerenotmuchhigherthantheyarenow,ataround5%.Evenwithaonce-in-a-centuryfinancialcrisislooming,buyingstocksratherthanmakingearlymortgagerepaymentswouldhavepaidoffhandsomely. 若考虑长期机会成本与股票投资的替代选择，差距更为显著。二十年前英国房贷利率约5%，与当前水平相差无几。即便面临百年一遇的金融危机，选择购股而非提前还贷仍能获得丰厚回报。Sincethestartof2005,measuredinpoundssterling,theMSCIWorldshareindexhasgeneratedannualisednominalreturnsofabove10%.Hadyourmortgageratestayedthesameforthenexttwodecades(thoughinrealityitwouldhavefallen),payingoff£1,000($1,250)in2005wouldhavesavedarespectable£1,800ininterest.Investingitinaglobalshare-trackerfundwouldhavemadeaprofitof£6,500,however.自2005年初以来，以英镑计价的MSCI全球股票指数年化名义回报率超10%。假设房贷利率未来二十年维持不变（实际会下降），2005年提前偿还1000英镑（约合1250美元）贷款可节省1800英镑利息，但若投资全球股票指数基金则可获利6500英镑。Today’smortgage-holdersmustaskwhethersuchstellarstockmarketreturnsarestillonoffer.ThoseenjoyedbyBritonshavebeenflatteredbyasteepfallinthevalueofthepound,whichhasboostedthegainsfromforeignsharesasmeasuredinlocalcurrency.Forinvestorsaroundtheworld,aheftyproportionofrecentdecades’highreturnshascomefromballooningstockvaluations. 如今房贷持有者需要思考：股市是否还能提供如此耀眼的回报？英国投资者此前的优异表现得益于英镑大幅贬值，以外币计价的海外股票收益兑换成本币后显著放大。对全球投资者而言，近几十年的高回报很大程度源自股票估值膨胀。Twentyyearsago,forexample,thepriceoftheMSCIWorldindexwas22timesashighasitscompanies’long-runaverageearnings.Nowthatmultiplehasrisento30.Putanotherway,abigshareofthegainscamefrom sentiment ratherthanearnings.Unlessinvestorscontinuetoassignmoreandmorevaluetoeachdollarofcorporateprofit,suchamultiplelimitsthescopeforfutureoutsizereturns.例如二十年前MSCI全球指数市盈率为长期平均盈利的22倍，如今已升至30倍。换言之，大部分收益源于市场情绪而非实际盈利。除非投资者持续给予每美元企业利润更高估值，否则这种市盈率将限制未来超额回报空间。Asaconsequence,repayingyourmortgageearlylooksmoreattractivenowthanithasinaverylongtime,evenincludingthoseperiodswheninterestrateswereattoday’slevelsorhigher.Thatisanoddthoughtforcentralbankers,solongaftertheystartedtighteningmonetarypolicyto quell inflation,andwithmanyofthemhavingspentrecentmonthslooseningitinstead. 综上所述，提前还贷的吸引力已达多年未见的高位——即便在利率与当前持平或更高的历史时期也属罕见。这对央行官员而言颇为讽刺：启动加息抗通胀多年后，多数央行近月反而转向宽松。Borrowerswhoweresufficientlyshrewd,orlucky,tosecureultra-lowratesfordecadesratherthanyearswillbeenjoyingtheirholidayforsometimetocome.Forplentyofothers,reality beckons.那些精明或幸运地锁定数十年超低利率的借款人，仍将继续享受假期。但对更多人而言，是时候直面现实了。（红色标注词为重难点词汇）重难点词汇：culminate [ˈkʌlmɪneɪt]v. 达到顶点；以…告终aberration [ˌæbəˈreɪʃn]n. 异常；偏离sentiment [ˈsentɪmənt]n. 情绪；观点quell [kwel]v. 平息；镇压beckon [ˈbekən]v. 召唤；示意；吸引
