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创建于:2024-08-21 16:28:16
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Does intermittent fastingwork?间歇性禁食有效吗?Itdoesforweightloss.Itsothersupposedbenefitsaredebatable对于减肥确实有效。但其宣称的其他健康效益仍有争议Dietscomeanddietsgo.Oneofthemostpopulartodayis “intermittentfasting” inwhich,asthenamesuggests,theideaistolimitone’sfoodintaketocertaintimewindows.Onepopular variant,the “5-2diet”,requirespeopletoeateitherverysmallamounts,ornothingatall,ontwodaysaweek,butimposesnorestrictionsontheotherfive.减肥方法层出不穷。时下最流行的当属"间歇性禁食"——顾名思义,就是将进食时间限定在特定时段。其中"5-2轻断食法"颇受欢迎,要求每周两天仅少量进食或完全禁食,其余五天则无需限制。Intermittentfastingispopular.Andasaweight-lossstrategy,ithasseveralthingsgoingforit.Oneisthatitisuncomplicated.Thereisnoneedtoweightheingredientsofeverymeal,assomedietsdemand,nortochangewhatyoueat drastically.Limitingtherestrictionstoacoupleofdaysaweek,orseveralhoursaday(mostofwhicharespentasleep)alsorequiresless willpower,whichmightmakeiteasiertostickwith.这种饮食方式大行其道。作为减重策略,它具备多项优势。其一,操作简单。无需像某些饮食法那样精确称量每餐食材,也无需彻底改变饮食结构。每周仅需坚持数天,或每天限制数小时(大部分时间在睡眠中度过),意志力的消耗相对较少,因此更易长期坚持。Workingoutwhetherthatactuallytranslatesintogreaterweightlossthanotherdietsisdifficult.Moststudiesfindlimiteddataandmixedresults.Thegeneralconsensus,saysNicholaLudlam-Raine,adietitianandspokeswomanfortheBritishDieteticAssociation,isthatintermittentfastingseemstoworkroughlyaswellforweightlossastraditionalcalorie-countingdoes.但要验证其减重效果是否优于其他饮食法却非易事。多数研究数据有限且结果不一。英国饮食协会发言人、营养学家尼古拉·拉德拉姆-雷恩指出,学界普遍认为间歇性禁食与传统热量控制法在减重效果上大致相当。Otherhealthbenefitsmightalsobeckon.Forcinglabanimalstofast(albeitnotintermittently)canincreasetheirlifespansbyupto40%.Italsoappearsto mitigate thephysicaldeclinethatcomeswitholdage,boostvariousmarkersofmetabolichealthandevenreducesusceptibilitytocancer.该饮食法可能还具备其他健康裨益。实验室动物强制禁食(尽管不是间歇性禁食)可延长寿命达40%,同时能延缓机体衰老、改善代谢指标,甚至降低患癌风险。Exactlyhowitdoesallthatisnotentirelyclear.Oneimportantfactorseemstobeautophagy,theprocessbywhichcellsbreakdownandrecyclepartsofthemselves.Cellsbecomemuchkeeneronautophagywhennutrientsarescarce. 具体作用机制尚未完全阐明。一个重要因素可能是细胞自噬机制——即细胞分解并回收自身部分结构的过程。当营养匮乏时,细胞自噬活动显著增强。Atthesametime,autophagyseemstohaveapreferenceforattackingdamagedanddegradedpartsofcells—andtheaccumulationofsuchcellulardetritusisoneofseveralmechanismsthoughttounderliethe decrepitude thatcomeswithageing.同时,这种机制优先清除细胞内的受损老化部分,而此类细胞碎片的堆积正是导致衰老的重要因素。Thehopeisthatintermittentfastingmightprovokeasimilarresponseinhumans.Therearetheoreticalreasonstothinkitmight:thecellularmechanismstriggeredbyfoodshortagesseemtohavebeenconservedbyevolutioninallsortsofdifferentanimals. 人们期待间歇性禁食能在人体引发类似反应。从理论上讲确有可能:食物短缺引发的细胞机制似乎已在各类动物中进化保留。Butrunningdefinitivehumantrialsofthesortdoneonlabanimalsisimpossible.“Whenwesay ‘calorierestriction’ wemeannearlystarving[theanimals],”saysAdamCollins,anutritionresearcherattheUniversityofSurrey.但要在人体开展实验室动物那种严格试验并不可行。萨里大学营养学家亚当·柯林斯指出:"我们所说的'热量限制'对实验动物而言近乎饥饿疗法。"Thatleavesscientistsreliant,fornow,onsmallish,short-livedstudiesthatuselessdrasticdietsandwhichrelyon proxy measuresofhealthsuchasinsulinresponseorcholesterollevels.Theirresultsaremixed. 目前科学家只能依赖规模较小、周期较短的替代性研究,这些研究采用较温和的饮食方案,并以胰岛素反应或胆固醇水平等替代指标评估健康效益。研究结果同样存在分歧。DrCollins’steam,forinstance,haspublishedarandomised-controltrial(themostrigoroussort)suggestingthatintermittentfastingimprovesthemetabolismoffatsmorethanordinarydietingdoes. 柯林斯博士团队发表的随机对照试验(最严谨的研究类型)显示,间歇性禁食比普通节食更能改善脂肪代谢。AreviewpaperpublishedinApril2024lookedat23otherstudiesandconcludedthatintermittentfastingwasslightlybetterthanordinarydietingforoverweightpeoplewhenitcametoimprovinglevelsofcholesterolandinsulin.Asimilararticle,publishedinJanuary,foundnomeaningfuldifferenceforeitherweightlossorcardiovascularhealth.2024年4月发表的一篇综述对23项研究进行分析后认为,在改善超重人群胆固醇和胰岛素水平方面,间歇性禁食略胜一筹;但同年1月的另一篇类似论文发现,在减重效果和心血管健康方面两者并无显著差异。Therearealsorisks.AstudyinmicepublishedinNatureinOctober2024foundthatseverefasting(wherecalorieswerecutby40%)haddownsides,includingmusclemasslossand,possibly,weakenedimmunesystems.Moderation,too,shouldbetakeninmoderation.潜在风险亦不容忽视。2024年10月《自然》杂志刊登的一项小鼠实验表明,严格禁食(热量摄入减少40%)会导致肌肉流失,并可能削弱免疫系统。适度原则本身也需把握分寸。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:intermittent [ˌɪntərˈmɪtənt]adj. 间歇的;断断续续的variant [ˈveəriənt]n. 变体;变种 adj.不同的;变化的drastically [ˈdræstɪkəli]adv. 彻底地;激烈地;极大地willpower [ˈwɪlpaʊər]n. 意志力;毅力mitigate [ˈmɪtɪɡeɪt]v. 减轻;缓和;缓解decrepitude [dɪˈkrepɪtjuːd]n. 衰老;虚弱;老朽proxy [ˈprɒksi]n. 代理;代表;代理人 v. 代理;代表
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HavedoctorsbeenwrongabouthowtotreatAlzheimer’sdisease?医生们治疗阿尔兹海默症的方法是否一直存在谬误?AnewbookarguesthatdogmaandbadscienceledAlzheimer’sresearchastray一本新书揭露:教条主义与伪科学如何将阿尔兹海默研究引入歧途Alzheimer’sdiseaseaffectsmorethan30mpeopleworldwide,mostlytheelderly.Aftertheageof65,thechanceofdevelopingitdoubleseveryfiveyears.By85,theoddsareoneinthree. 阿尔兹海默症影响着全球超3000万人,患者多为老年人。65岁后罹患此病的风险每五年翻一番,85岁人群患病率高达三分之一。Itssymptoms,whichincludememoryloss,difficultywithbasictasksanddepression,progressivelyworsen.Asgloballifeexpectancyrises,sowillcasesofAlzheimer’s,makingitoneofthebigpublic-healthchallengesofanageingworld.其症状包括记忆衰退、基础行动困难与抑郁情绪,且会持续恶化。随着全球预期寿命延长,阿尔兹海默症病例将持续攀升,成为老龄化社会面临的重大公共卫生挑战。Thereisnocure.Between1995and2021,around$42bnwaspouredintomorethan1,000clinicaltrials.Yetonlyahandfulofdrugshasmadeittomarket.Eventhosemostlytreatthesymptomsofthedisease,ratherthanstopit.目前该病尚无根治之法。1995至2021年间,超420亿美元资金投入到1000多项临床试验,但仅有寥寥数款药物成功上市。即便获批药物也仅能缓解症状,无法阻止病程发展。TheleadingexplanationofAlzheimer’sisthe“amyloidhypothesis”,whichsuggeststhatdepositsofbeta-amyloid,atypeofprotein,accumulatebetweenneuronsanddisrupttheirfunction. 主流理论"淀粉样蛋白假说"认为,β-淀粉样蛋白在神经元间沉积导致功能紊乱。Butthetheoryremainscontroversial:allbrainswithAlzheimer’sshowbeta-amyloidplaques,yetnoteveryonewiththeseplaquesexperiencescognitivedecline.Whetheramyloidbuild-upcausesAlzheimer’s,orismerelyasymptom,remainsunresolved.但该理论始终存在争议:所有阿尔兹海默患者脑部均存在淀粉样斑块,但具有此类斑块者未必都会出现认知衰退。淀粉样蛋白堆积究竟致病还是仅为病症表现,至今未有定论。In“Doctored”CharlesPiller,asciencejournalist,detailshowgroupthinkanddishonestysteeredAlzheimer’sresearchoffcourse.In2006 aNaturepaper byresearchersattheUniversityofMinnesotaappearedtoprovideamajorbreakthrough.Thestudyclaimedthatasubtypeofbeta-amyloidcausedmemoryimpairment.Itquicklybecameoneofthemostcitedpapersandinspiredhundredsofmillionsofdollarsinpublic-researchgrants. 科学记者查尔斯·皮勒在《篡改的科学》一书中详述了群体思维与学术不端如何扭曲阿尔兹海默研究。2006年明尼苏达大学研究团队在《自然》发表的论文看似取得重大突破,声称某种β-淀粉样亚型会导致记忆损伤。这篇高被引论文催生了数亿美元公共研究经费。Anotherinfluentialpaperpublishedin2012byscientistsassociatedwithCassavaSciences,abiotechfirm, bolstered theamyloidtheorybylinkinginsulinresistancetoamyloidplaqueformation.ThefindingfuelledawaveofresearchintotheideaofAlzheimer’sbeinga“diabetesofthebrain”thatcouldbemanagedwithdrugs.Therewasjustoneproblem—bothstudieswerebasedon falsifieddata.2012年生物科技公司木薯科学关联科学家发表的另一重磅论文,通过论证胰岛素抵抗与淀粉样斑块形成的关联进一步巩固该假说,引发"脑部糖尿病"治疗理念的研究热潮。但问题在于——两项研究均基于伪造数据。“Doctored”followsMrPiller’sinvestigationintothedeception.Centraltothestoryisagroupofimage sleuths,withasharpeyeformanipulatedpixelsofWesternblots(alabtechniqueusedtostudyproteins,whichwere doctoredinthestudies). 《篡改的科学》记录了皮勒对学术造假的调查历程。故事核心是一群图像侦探,他们以专业眼光识别蛋白质印迹实验(研究中遭篡改的蛋白质检测技术)的像素篡改痕迹。Somechaptersreadlikeascientific whodunnit.Inone,MrPillerhastoworkhardtoearnthetrustofa reluctantwhistleblower.Inanother,hetravelstoPragueforaprivatemeetingwithagroupofimagedetectiveswithcrypticpseudonyms.部分章节犹如科学探案:皮勒需费尽周折赢得泄密者信任;又专程赴布拉格与化名神秘的图像分析专家秘密会面。Despiteclearevidenceofmanipulatedresearchresults,journalsandregulatorswereslowtoact.MrPillerblamespowerfulbackersoftheamyloidhypothesiswhoignoredredflags. 尽管篡改证据确凿,期刊与监管机构却反应迟缓。皮勒指责淀粉样假说的权势支持者刻意忽视危险信号。ItwasonlyinJune2024—twoyearsafterallegationsfirstsurfaced—thattheNaturepaperwasretractedbyitsauthors.CassavaSciences,whiledenyingwrongdoing,stoppedtrialsofitsAlzheimer’sdrug,Simufilam,inNovemberafteritfailedtoshowclinicalbenefits.首起学术不端指控浮现两年后,《自然》论文才于2024年6月被作者撤回。木薯科学虽否认过失,其药物Simufilam因缺乏临床疗效已于去年11月终止试验。Thesepapers’consequencesgobeyondthelab.Forpatientsandtheirfamilies,experimentaltreatmentsoftenrepresentafinallifeline.Encouragingpeopletopintheirhopesonmedicinesthatareineffective,orevenunsafe,isa betrayal.Fixationonatheoryofferinglimitedsuccessinhumantrialsmayalsohavedivertedresourcesfromothermorepromisingtherapies.这些论文的影响远超实验室范畴。对患者家庭而言,实验性疗法常是最后希望。诱导人们寄望于无效甚至危险的药物实属背叛。执着于临床试验屡屡受挫的理论,可能已挤占其他更具前景疗法的研发资源。Since2023theFoodandDrugAdministration,America’sdrugregulator,hasapprovedtwonewmedicinesthatmodestlyslowedcognitivedeclinebyattackingtheamyloidplaques. 2023年以来,美国食药监局批准了两款通过清除淀粉样斑块延缓认知衰退的新药。但部分患者出现脑肿胀、脑出血等严重副作用。Theyalsocomewithdangerousside-effectsforsome,whichincludebrainswellingandbleeding.MrPillerremainsscepticalofthesetreatments.Sowillmanyofhisreaders,afterhisgrippingstoryofmedicalgroupthinkand warped incentives.皮勒对这些疗法持怀疑态度。随着这部揭露医学界群体思维与扭曲激励机制的作品问世,相信众多读者也将产生同样疑虑。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:bolster [ˈboʊlstər]n. 长枕;支持物 v. 支持;增强;巩固sleuth [sluːθ]n. 侦探;私家侦探 v. 像侦探般调查;搜寻whodunnit [ˈhuːdʌnɪt]n. 侦探小说;推理小说reluctant [rɪˈlʌktənt]adj. 不情愿的;勉强的whistleblower [ˈwɪslbloʊər]n. 告密者;检举者;揭发者betrayal [bɪˈtreɪəl]n. 背叛;出卖;辜负warp [wɔːrp]n. 弯曲;变形 v. 弯曲;变形;歪曲(事实等)
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LondonisageingtwiceasquicklyastherestofEngland伦敦老龄化速度是全英格兰的两倍Partlybecauseit’saniceplacetobeold部分原因在于这里适合养老Somelondonersdreamofretiringtocottagesbythesea.ButNickSanderson,thechiefexecutiveofAudleyGroup,believesthatdesiresareshifting.HiscompanyhasbuiltflatsforretireesinClapham,insouthLondon,andwillsoonstartbuilding150moreinBrentCross,inthenorth-westofthecity.IthopestocreatearetirementvillageinCanadaWater,intheeastLondondocklands.“Whywouldyouchoosetogoandliveoutinthemiddleofnowhere?”heasks.一些伦敦人梦想退休后搬到海边小屋居住。但奥德利集团首席执行官尼克·桑德森认为人们的意愿正在改变。他的公司在伦敦南部的克拉彭区为退休人士建造了公寓,很快还将在西北部的布伦特十字区新建150套此类住房,并希望在东部码头区的加拿大水区打造一个退休社区。他反问道:"为什么要选择去偏僻之地生活呢?"London’spopulationiscertainlyaltering.Between2011and2023themedianageofitsinhabitantsrosebytwoyears,fromjustunder34tojustunder36.AlthoughthecityisyoungerthanEnglandandWalesasawhole,itisageingmorethantwiceasquickly.ComparedwithcitieslikeExeter,ManchesterandNottingham,whichhaveuniversitiesandrelativelycheaphomes,itseemsdecidedlycreaky.伦敦的人口结构确实在发生变化。2011年至2023年间,居民年龄中位数从略低于34岁上升至略低于36岁。虽然整体而言伦敦仍比英格兰和威尔士其他地区年轻,但其老龄化速度却是这些地区的两倍多。与埃克塞特、曼彻斯特和诺丁汉等拥有大学和相对廉价住房的城市相比,伦敦的老龄化趋势显得尤为明显。AreportpublishedlastmonthbytheResolutionFoundation,athink-tank,suggeststhatthreechangesareresponsibleforthistrend.Londonhasfewerbabiesthanitusedto.Youngadultsmakeupasmallershareofitspopulationthaninthepast.Andtheranksofthemiddle-agedandoldareswelling.智库决议基金会上月发布的报告指出,三个因素共同导致了这一趋势:伦敦新生儿数量减少、年轻人口占比下降,以及中老年人口规模扩大。Londonexperiencedaremarkablebabyboominthefirstdecadeofthiscentury.Sincethenithassufferedacrash.Between2010and2023thecapital’sfertilityrate,whichisexpressedasthenumberofbirthsperwoman,fellfrom2.0to1.4—aslightlyfasterdeclinethaninEnglandandWalesasawhole.ThefertilityrateininnerLondonis1.2,closetothenationallevelsinItalyandJapan,tworichcountriesthatarewellknownfortheirrapidlyageingpopulations.Aroundthecapital,primaryschoolsareclosing.本世纪头十年伦敦曾经历显著婴儿潮,此后却遭遇断崖式下跌。2010至2023年间,首都生育率(每位女性生育数)从2.0降至1.4,下降速度略快于英格兰和威尔士整体水平。内伦敦地区生育率仅为1.2,接近以快速老龄化著称的意大利和日本等富裕国家的全国水平。首都周边地区的小学正在陆续关闭。Theshortageofyoungadultsmightnotbequiteasacuteasofficialstatisticssuggest.Recentpopulationestimatesareinfluencedbythelastcensus,whichwasconductedinthecovid-ravagedmonthofMarch2021.Aroundthattime,someyoungpeopleabandonedtheircrampedcity-centreflatsforsuburbia.Nowthatcovidisamere nuisance,andmoreemployersareinsistingthatpeopleworkintheoffice,aportionmayhavecreptbackintothecity,unnoticedbystatisticians.年轻人口短缺的严重程度或许不及官方数据显示的那么严峻。最新人口估算受到2021年3月疫情肆虐期间开展的最近一次人口普查影响。当时部分年轻人逃离拥挤的市中心迁居郊区。随着疫情威胁消退,更多雇主要求员工返岗办公,可能有部分人悄然回归城市,但未被统计部门察觉。Butperhapsnotalargeportion.Thepandemic,andtheriseinhome-workingthatittriggered,wipedoutsomeoftheretailandhospitalityjobsthatusedtodrawyoungpeopletoLondon.AnindexoftransactionsatPret,asandwichchain,showsthatsalesinshopsservingLondon’scityworkerswerejust63%ofpre-pandemiclevelslastOctober.不过回流规模可能有限。疫情引发的远程办公浪潮,消除了零售和餐饮业等曾吸引年轻人来伦敦的传统就业机会。连锁三明治品牌Pret的交易指数显示,去年10月服务于伦敦金融城上班族的门店销售额仅为疫情前水平的63%。Immigrants,whoareoftenyoung,seemtobeshunningthecapitalforcheaperplacesoutsidethecitylimits,suchasThurrocktotheeastandWatfordtothenorth.Between2011and2021theproportionofforeign-bornpeopleinNewham,anethnicallydiverseboroughofinnerLondon,wasflat.InLambeth,anotherinnerLondonborough,thesharefell.WhenBritainlefttheEUin2020itcreatedanimmigrationsystemthatfavourshealthandcareworkers.Healthandcarejobscanbefoundalloverthecountry,notjustinLondon.年轻移民群体似乎更青睐瑟罗克(东部)和沃特福德(北部)等城郊廉价区域。2011至2021年间,内伦敦多元文化社区纽汉姆区的外国出生人口比例保持稳定,而在兰贝斯等另一个内伦敦行政区,该比例甚至出现下降。英国2020年脱欧后建立的移民体系优先医护工作者,而这类岗位在全国各地而非仅限伦敦存在。Thebabybustmightend;youngadultscouldreturntothecity.Bycontrast,theriseofmiddle-agedandoldpeopleappearstobe inexorable.TheGreaterLondonAuthority(GLA),whichoverseesthecapital,estimatesthatthenumberofpeopleaged50oroverrosebymorethan400,000between2014and2024,accountingformorethanfour-fifthsofoverallpopulationgrowthinthecity.TheGLAexpectssimilargrowthoverthenextdecade.PartsofsuburbanLondon,suchasRichmonduponThames,inthewest,aregreyingathighspeed.婴儿荒或许会终止,年轻人可能重返都市。相比之下,中老年人口增长似乎势不可挡。大伦敦政府估算,2014至2024年间50岁以上人口增加超40万,占全市人口增长总量的五分之四以上。该机构预计未来十年将保持相似增速。里士满等伦敦郊区正在加速老龄化。“Theculturehaschanged,”arguesPatrickDevlin,anarchitectwhodesignsretirementhomes,amongotherbuildings.Thedesiretomovetoaseasidebungalowisgivingwaytothedesiretolivenearfriendsandcultural amenities. 设计退休社区的建筑师帕特里克·德夫林指出:"文化观念已经改变。"人们不再执着于海滨平房,转而追求便利的社交圈和文化设施。Londonisexceptionallywellsuppliedwiththelatter,andwithsuperbpublictransport,whichcanberiddengratisbyLondonersfromtheageof60(elsewherepeoplemustwaituntil66).Despitethe paranoid rantsofsomeAmericanpopulists,thecityhasgrownsafe.CumbriaandHampshirehavehigherratesofviolentcrime.伦敦不仅拥有首屈一指的文化资源,公共交通系统对60岁以上居民免费开放(其他地区需年满66岁)。尽管某些美国民粹主义者危言耸听,但伦敦治安持续改善——坎布里亚郡和汉普郡的暴力犯罪率更高。“It’samorepleasantcitytolivein—ifyouhavethemoney,”saysRichardBrown,aLondon-watcher.Middle-agedandoldLondonersoftendohavethemoney,oratleastthewealth,becausetheyboughttheirhomeswhenpricesweremorereasonablethantheyaretoday.Otherssettleasclosetothecityastheycan,andcommutewhentheymust.伦敦观察家理查德·布朗说:"只要经济宽裕,这是座宜居之城。"多数中老年市民确实具备这样的经济实力,至少拥有房产财富(购入时价格远低于现价)。其他人则尽可能定居近郊,必要时通勤入城。Inthelongrun,thefactthatLondonissuchahardplaceforchildrenandyoungadultsshouldbeconcerning,becauseitsuggeststhatthecitycouldgraduallybecomelessexcitinganddynamic.Fornow,however,thereisaconcertattheRoyalFestivalHall,andabusispullingup.Where’sthatfreepass?长远来看,伦敦对青少年群体的不友好令人担忧,这可能导致城市活力逐渐衰退。但此刻,皇家节日音乐厅的演出即将开场,公交车正缓缓进站。那张免费乘车卡放哪儿了?(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:nuisance [ˈnjuːsns]n. 麻烦事;讨厌的人(或东西)inexorable [ɪnˈeksərəbl]adj. 不可阻挡的;不可改变的amenity [əˈmiːnəti]n. 便利设施;生活福利设施paranoid [ˈpærənɔɪd]adj. 偏执的;多疑的
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Howtogetpeopletoresign如何让员工主动辞职Withouttorchingtheorganisationorlosingyourbestemployees而不破坏组织或流失优秀人才Thegutreactionthatamanagerhaswhenanemployeeannouncestheirresignationistelling.Sometimesitisgenuinedismay:thepersonleavingisastar.Sometimesdisappointmentismixedwith irritation athavingtorecruitandtrainareplacement.Andsometimesitisrelief:theHRequivalentofapebblebeingremovedfromyourshoe.当员工提出辞职时,管理者的本能反应往往耐人寻味。有时是真情流露的沮丧:离开者是明星员工。有时在失望中夹杂着恼怒:又要重新招聘和培训替代者。有时则是如释重负:仿佛人力资源部门终于从鞋里取出了一粒石子。ForElonMuskandhis acolytes attheDepartmentofGovernmentEfficiency(DOGE),employeesofthefederalgovernmentinAmericaarepebblesallthewaydown.OnJanuary28ththeOfficeofPersonnelManagement(OPM)sentanemailtoroughly2mworkersofferingthem“deferredresignation”,thechancetoresignandgetpaiduntiltheendofSeptember. 对于埃隆·马斯克及其"政府效率部"(DOGE)的信徒而言,美国联邦政府的雇员就像层层堆积的鞋中砾石。1月28日,美国人事管理局(OPM)向约200万名公务员发送邮件,提供"延迟辞职"机会——即刻辞职仍可领薪至9月底。Thelegalityofthisofferisuncertain(onFebruary12thajudgeallowedittoproceed).Soistheend-goal:bossesoftenusevoluntaryredundancyasaconsensualwaytocutheadcountbuttheassumptionisusuallythattheywanttheorganisationitselftosurvive.Still,theepisoderaisesaninterestingquestion:isthereagoodwaytogetworkerstoresign?该提议的合法性尚存疑(2月12日,法官允许其推进),最终目标也令人困惑:企业通常用自愿离职补偿作为削减编制的共识方案,但前提是组织本身需要存续。不过此事引出一个有趣问题:是否存在让员工主动辞职的理想方式?TheopennessoftheOPM’sdeferred-resignationofferisinitsfavour.Bosseshavelongadoptedunderhandtacticstoencourageindividualstoquitratherthanhavetosackthem.Sometypesof“quietfiring”reducestimulationandstatus:managersgivetheirtargets menial worktodoorsticktheminsmallerandsmallerofficesuntiltheyendupfeelinglikeacorporateversionofAlice. 人事管理局方案的开放性值得肯定。管理者长期使用暗箱手段迫使员工主动离职以避免解雇纠纷。某些"隐性裁员"通过剥夺激励与地位实现:给目标员工安排打杂工作,或将他们塞进越来越小的办公室,使其产生爱丽丝梦游公司版的压抑感。Otherapproachessetpeopleupforfailure:deadlinesthatcannotbemet,weeklymeetingsat3amtosuitonecolleagueinAustralia. Nudging peopletoresignbymakinglifeintolerablewillnotwinyouamanager-of-the-yearaward.Norisitanefficientwaytothintheranks.还有些手段则预设失败:设置无法完成的截止期限,为配合澳洲同事召开凌晨三点的周会。通过制造痛苦逼人辞职绝非"年度最佳管理者"的明智之选,也非精简团队的有效途径。Givingemployeesanexplicitincentivetoleavetheirjobscanbeaneffectivewaytoseparatethecommittedfromthetime-servers.ZapposandAmazon,twoonlineretailers,haveexperimentedwithpay-to-quitprogrammesdesignedto winkleout newhireswhoarenotmotivatedtostay. 明确的经济激励能有效筛选出混日子的员工。线上零售商Zappos和亚马逊曾试验"付费离职"计划,剔除缺乏动力的新员工。WhenMrMusktookoverTwitterin2022,hesentanemailwiththesamesubject-lineastheOPM’smissive,askingpeopletoclickonalinkiftheywerereadytoembracehis“hardcore”culture.Thosethatdidnotclickwereofferedseverancepay,thoughlawsuitscontinuefromthosewhosaytheydidnotreceivethemoney.马斯克2022年收购推特时发送过类似人事管理局的邮件,要求员工点击链接表明接受"硬核"文化,未点击者被提供遣散费(但诉讼显示部分人声称未收到款项)。Apay-to-quitschememakesitmorecostlyforworkerstofeignenthusiasmforajob.But,asapaperbyRobertDurandHeinerSchmittdielofErasmusUniversityRotterdampointsout,itcanhaveunintendedconsequencesifitisastandingoffer:peoplemayendupjoiningafirminordertoresignandgetanexitbonus.付费离职计划增加了员工伪装工作热情的成本。但鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学的罗伯特·杜尔和海纳·施密特迪尔指出,若将其设为长期政策可能适得其反:有人可能专为领取离职奖金而入职。Theremaybeasubtlerandcheaperwaytopromptresignationsamongpeoplewhoarenotagoodfit.InarecentstudybyNavaAshrafandOrianaBandieraoftheLondonSchoolofEconomicsandVirginiaMinniandLuigiZingalesoftheUniversityofChicago,someemployeesofaconsumer-goodsfirmwereaskedtoreflectonwhatmatteredtothemandwhethertheirjobsfulfilledtheirindividualsenseofpurpose.Inthemonthsfollowingtheseworkshopsexitsfromthecompanyincreasedsubstantiallyamongparticipants,comparedwithemployeeswhodidnottakepart,anddidsoparticularlyamonglowerperformers.Productivityrose.对于人岗不匹配者,存在更巧妙经济的促离职方式。伦敦政经学院纳瓦·阿什拉夫、奥里安娜·班迪耶拉与芝加哥大学维吉尼亚·米尼、路易吉·津加莱斯的联合研究发现:某消费品公司让部分员工反思工作与个人价值目标的契合度后,参与者在随后数月离职率显著高于对照组,且低绩效者尤为明显——而公司整体生产率却得到提升。Thesuccessofaresignationofferdependspartlyonwhatkindoffutureawaitspeoplewhostay.TheOPMemailwarnsgovernmentemployeesthatthereismoredownsizingandrestructuringtocome.Thepeoplemostlikelytotakethemoneyinthesecircumstancesareoftenstrongperformers,whohavethebestchanceoflandinganewjob.离职计划的成效部分取决于留任者面临的未来。人事管理局邮件警告公务员后续将有更多精简重组,这种情况下最可能接受补偿的往往是高绩效者——他们本就更容易找到新工作。ThereissomeindirectevidenceforthiseffectinarecentpaperbyYuyeDingoftheUniversityofPittsburghandherco-authors,whichlooksattheeffectofreturn-to-office(RTO)mandatesonemployeechurn. 匹兹堡大学丁雨叶及其合作者近期关于"返岗令"(RTO)对员工流动影响的研究提供了佐证。Plentyofpeoplesuspectthatbossesrequirepeopletocomebackintotheofficepartlyinordertopromptresignations,andtheevidencefromtheLinkedInprofilesofworkersatfinancialandtechnologyfirmsintheS&P500isthatRTOmandatesdocauseturnovertospike.Theauthorsalsofindthatchurnisgreatestamongwomenandamongmoreexperiencedandskilledworkers,andthatfirmssubsequentlyhavemoretroublefillingvacancies.许多人怀疑企业强制返岗暗含促离职意图,标普500金融科技公司领英数据证实返岗令确实引发离职潮。研究还发现:女性、资深员工和技术人才流失最严重,且企业后续填补空缺难度加大。SuchconsiderationsmaynotmattermuchtotheDOGEfolk,whoseprimaryaimseemstobe evisceration.Butifyouwanttoencourageresignationsandendupwithmorewheatthanchaff,ithelpstohaveacompellingvisionofthefuture.这些考量对"政府效率部"或许无关紧要——他们的首要目标似乎是器官切除式裁员。但若您既希望员工主动辞职,又希望去芜存菁,关键在于为未来描绘令人信服的图景。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:irritation [ˌɪrɪˈteɪʃən]n. 恼怒;刺激acolyte [ˈækəlaɪt]n.助手;随从;侍僧menial [ˈmiːniəl]adj. 单调乏味的;卑微的;琐碎的nudge [nʌdʒ]n. 轻推;暗示 v. 轻推;推动winkleout 巧妙获取;劝离;挖出evisceration [ɪˌvɪsəˈreɪʃən]n. 去除内脏;彻底破坏;大幅削减
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Whyyoushouldrepayyourmortgageearly为什么应该提前还房贷Forthefirsttimeindecades,thearithmeticsuggestssettlinghousingloans几十年来首次出现有利的还贷数学逻辑Theholidayfromreality,forthehappyfewenjoyingit,hasbeendelightful.ThreeyearsagoitwasstillpossibletofixamortgagerateinBritainandmuchoftheeuroareaatsomewherenear1%.Americanhousingloansweredearerbyjustapercentagepointortwo. 对于那些有幸享受低息贷款的人群而言,这段脱离现实的美好时光确实令人愉悦。三年前,英国和欧元区大部分地区仍能申请到1%左右的固定房贷利率。美国房贷利率仅高出1-2个百分点。Evenasinterestrateshaverisenandborrowingcostsfornewmortgageshavedoubledortripled,homeownerswholockedintheenviableratesoftheearly2020shavebeenlivingblissfullyinthepast.Moreover,theinflationthatpromptedratestorisehasbittenchunksoutoftherealvalueoftheirdebt.即便在利率上升、新发放房贷成本翻倍甚至三倍后,那些锁定了2020年代初诱人利率的业主们依然幸福地生活在过去。更妙的是,推高利率的通胀反而大幅削减了债务的实际价值。Alas,theholidayisnowoverformany.AlthoughAmericanfixedratesoftenlastfordecades,mostinBritainandswathesofcontinentalEuropeexpireafterfiveyearsorless.Itwasinearly2022thatthelastofthedirt-cheaploansdisappeared,afterwhichborrowingcostsbeganclimbingfast. 可惜对多数人而言,假期已告终结。虽然美国固定利率通常持续数十年,但英国及欧洲大陆多数地区普遍采用五年或更短期限。2022年初,最后一批超低利率贷款消失后,借贷成本便开始快速攀升。Alargenumberofmortgage-holders,inotherwords,haveeitherseentheirinterestbillsrocketrecentlyorwilldosoon.Forthosewithsparecashtohand,aquestionthatseemedremoteafewyearsagoissuddenlyagreatdealmorepressing.Shouldtheyrepaythedebtearly?这意味着大量房贷客户要么已面临利息激增,要么即将面临这一冲击。对于手头有闲钱的人,几年前还遥不可及的问题突然变得迫在眉睫:是否应该提前还贷?Tomanywhoowedmoneyduringthe1980s,wheninterestratessoaredintothedoubledigits,theanswerisanobvious“yes”.Atthetime,borrowingcostsbecamesoelevatedthatmerelymeetingthem,letalonerepayinganycapitalinaddition,wasaconstantstruggle. 对那些经历过1980年代两位数利率时期的人来说,答案显然是肯定的。当年借贷成本高企,仅支付利息已捉襟见肘,更遑论额外偿还本金。Theriskofthatbeingrepeatedissimplynotworthtaking.Better,then,topayalldebtoffattheearliestopportunity,whiledoingsoisstillpossible.Evenifratesstaywheretheyareatpresent,thatwillsavemoneyonfutureinterestbills.这种风险绝对不值得重蹈覆辙,最佳选择就是在尚有余力时尽早清偿债务。即便利率维持当前水平,也能节省未来利息支出。Thosewhoseexperiencewasshapedbymorerecentdecadesmightfeelratherdifferently.Interestrateshavespentmostofthattimeonadownwardtrend, culminating intheultra-loosemonetarypolicyseenduringthecovid-19pandemic.Nexttothat,itisthehikesofthepastfewyearsthatlooklikean aberration.但受近几十年经历影响的人群可能有不同看法。这期间利率长期下行,在新冠疫情期间更是达到超宽松货币政策的顶点。相比之下,近年来的加息反而像是异常波动。Moreimportant,theopportunitycostofrepayingamortgagehasoutweighedthepotentialsavingsforyears.Thisisespeciallyobvioustothosewhofixednear1%before2022,thenwatchedastheratesonsimplebankaccountsrosetoseveralmultiplesofthat.Undersuchcircumstances,overpayingamortgage,ratherthandepositingthecashandpocketingmuchmoreinterestthanrepayingwouldhavesaved,wouldhavebeennonsensical.更重要的是,多年来提前还贷的机会成本始终高于潜在节省。这对2022年前锁定近1%利率的群体尤为明显——他们眼睁睁看着普通银行存款利率升至该水平的数倍。这种情况下,选择提前还贷而非存款获取更高利息,显然不合逻辑。Theopportunitycostoverthelongerterm,andconsideringthealternativeofinvestinginshares,hasbeengreaterstill.TwentyyearsagomortgageratesinBritainwerenotmuchhigherthantheyarenow,ataround5%.Evenwithaonce-in-a-centuryfinancialcrisislooming,buyingstocksratherthanmakingearlymortgagerepaymentswouldhavepaidoffhandsomely. 若考虑长期机会成本与股票投资的替代选择,差距更为显著。二十年前英国房贷利率约5%,与当前水平相差无几。即便面临百年一遇的金融危机,选择购股而非提前还贷仍能获得丰厚回报。Sincethestartof2005,measuredinpoundssterling,theMSCIWorldshareindexhasgeneratedannualisednominalreturnsofabove10%.Hadyourmortgageratestayedthesameforthenexttwodecades(thoughinrealityitwouldhavefallen),payingoff£1,000($1,250)in2005wouldhavesavedarespectable£1,800ininterest.Investingitinaglobalshare-trackerfundwouldhavemadeaprofitof£6,500,however.自2005年初以来,以英镑计价的MSCI全球股票指数年化名义回报率超10%。假设房贷利率未来二十年维持不变(实际会下降),2005年提前偿还1000英镑(约合1250美元)贷款可节省1800英镑利息,但若投资全球股票指数基金则可获利6500英镑。Today’smortgage-holdersmustaskwhethersuchstellarstockmarketreturnsarestillonoffer.ThoseenjoyedbyBritonshavebeenflatteredbyasteepfallinthevalueofthepound,whichhasboostedthegainsfromforeignsharesasmeasuredinlocalcurrency.Forinvestorsaroundtheworld,aheftyproportionofrecentdecades’highreturnshascomefromballooningstockvaluations. 如今房贷持有者需要思考:股市是否还能提供如此耀眼的回报?英国投资者此前的优异表现得益于英镑大幅贬值,以外币计价的海外股票收益兑换成本币后显著放大。对全球投资者而言,近几十年的高回报很大程度源自股票估值膨胀。Twentyyearsago,forexample,thepriceoftheMSCIWorldindexwas22timesashighasitscompanies’long-runaverageearnings.Nowthatmultiplehasrisento30.Putanotherway,abigshareofthegainscamefrom sentiment ratherthanearnings.Unlessinvestorscontinuetoassignmoreandmorevaluetoeachdollarofcorporateprofit,suchamultiplelimitsthescopeforfutureoutsizereturns.例如二十年前MSCI全球指数市盈率为长期平均盈利的22倍,如今已升至30倍。换言之,大部分收益源于市场情绪而非实际盈利。除非投资者持续给予每美元企业利润更高估值,否则这种市盈率将限制未来超额回报空间。Asaconsequence,repayingyourmortgageearlylooksmoreattractivenowthanithasinaverylongtime,evenincludingthoseperiodswheninterestrateswereattoday’slevelsorhigher.Thatisanoddthoughtforcentralbankers,solongaftertheystartedtighteningmonetarypolicyto quell inflation,andwithmanyofthemhavingspentrecentmonthslooseningitinstead. 综上所述,提前还贷的吸引力已达多年未见的高位——即便在利率与当前持平或更高的历史时期也属罕见。这对央行官员而言颇为讽刺:启动加息抗通胀多年后,多数央行近月反而转向宽松。Borrowerswhoweresufficientlyshrewd,orlucky,tosecureultra-lowratesfordecadesratherthanyearswillbeenjoyingtheirholidayforsometimetocome.Forplentyofothers,reality beckons.那些精明或幸运地锁定数十年超低利率的借款人,仍将继续享受假期。但对更多人而言,是时候直面现实了。(红色标注词为重难点词汇)重难点词汇:culminate [ˈkʌlmɪneɪt]v. 达到顶点;以…告终aberration [ˌæbəˈreɪʃn]n. 异常;偏离sentiment [ˈsentɪmənt]n. 情绪;观点quell [kwel]v. 平息;镇压beckon [ˈbekən]v. 召唤;示意;吸引
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